New York, March 1, 2026, 09:36 EST — The market is closed.
- U.S. gasoline prices are likely heading higher this week, with crude traders on edge for a potential price swing once oil futures resume trading following strikes on Iran.
- Some analysts are pointing to the Strait of Hormuz as the wild card, warning that prolonged disruptions could send oil prices up to $100 a barrel.
- Sunday night futures trading and this week’s U.S. fuel stockpile figures are drawing close attention from drivers and investors looking for the first clear signals.
Gasoline in the U.S. could push past $3 a gallon this week, according to GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan, after oil markets were rattled by strikes on Iran over the weekend. The attacks have stoked concerns about shipping snags in the Strait of Hormuz. gaspriceguy.substack.com
Timing is key here. Oil futures start trading electronically again at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, with wholesale gasoline prices typically making the first move. Retail stations adjust after a delay. Factor in the seasonal shift to summer-grade gasoline—a lower-volatility formula mandated for the warmer months—and that alone can nudge prices higher.
Wall Street finished in the red Friday, ahead of the strikes—S&P 500 slipped 0.43%, the Dow dropped 1.05%. Brent wrapped up at $72.48 per barrel, which could put pressure on Monday’s open if energy prices see another spike. Reuters
Oil traders reported Brent jumping roughly 10%, trading near $80 a barrel in over-the-counter action on Sunday. Ajay Parmar, who heads energy and refining at ICIS, attributed the rally to “the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,” warning that if the disruption drags on, prices could open much nearer $100—even with OPEC+, which includes the OPEC group plus Russia and others, having agreed to only a small output increase starting in April. Reuters
Disruption is now hitting the market for real. Several tanker operators, major oil firms, and trading groups have paused some crude, fuel, and LNG shipments through Hormuz, according to trade sources speaking to Reuters, after Iran issued a warning for vessels to steer clear. German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has suspended transits indefinitely, and Maersk is working with security partners on next steps. Reuters
De Haan thinks drivers will likely notice higher prices at the pump roll out step by step, rather than all at once. Last week, AAA put the national average for gas at $2.98 per gallon. Bob McNally, who once served as a White House energy adviser, told CNBC he sees crude futures potentially jumping $5 to $7 a barrel when trading reopens Sunday evening. NBC New York
Turning crude oil price swings into what drivers pay is hardly straightforward, and headlines move faster than the pumps can. Patrick De Haan told the Houston Chronicle that when crude climbs $5 to $10, U.S. gasoline usually jumps about 15 to 25 cents a gallon. Wood Mackenzie, for its part, figures that if strikes stay limited and retaliation doesn’t escalate, oil might edge up just $5 to $7. Houston Chronicle
On trading floors, expectations are all over the map—and so is the language. Eurasia Group is talking about oil moving $5 to $10 higher from a $73 base if the fighting drags on through Sunday, while Barclays flagged a possible spike in Brent to $100 as trading kicks off. Mizuho’s Vishnu Varathan didn’t rule out a 10% to 25% premium even if there’s no outright blockade, calling that scenario “not outlandish.” Reuters
Crude accounts for more than half of what drivers pay at the pump, leaving refining, taxes, and distribution to cover the remainder. So even if tensions stay abroad, gasoline prices at home can still creep up.
But the flip side’s also true. A quick reroute turns into a fleeting “war premium”—that added cost buyers swallow on nerves and doubt. If Hormuz stays shut for longer, or even partly, supply tightens fast and governments start getting involved.
The International Energy Agency is keeping a close watch on developments and any impact on oil and gas markets, with chief Fatih Birol noting that supplies have held up so far. On Sunday, tanker-tracking data from S&P Global showed no crude or product tankers entering the main Hormuz routes. SP Global
The initial gauge comes with the NYMEX crude futures reopening at 6 p.m. ET Sunday, followed by U.S. equity markets kicking off Monday morning. Attention then turns to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum numbers—those land Wednesday, March 4. Traders will be parsing the data for new signals on crude and gasoline inventories as tensions and shipping risks continue to play out.
