New York, March 2, 2026, 12:33 EST — Regular session
The Dow Jones Industrial Average pared back its initial drop Monday, though it lingered in the red as traders reacted to a spike in oil prices amid the Middle East conflict. By 12:25 p.m. EST, the index was off 0.14% at 48,907.26.
Right now, it’s about inflation. Oil surged over 5%, a spike that’s likely to hit gasoline and shipping bills fast—raising the risk that cooling price pressures could stall, especially as investors eye the return of interest-rate cuts.
Everything rides on whether the supply squeeze worsens near the Strait of Hormuz, where nearly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through. William Jackson at Capital Economics figures a drawn-out conflict could send Brent up near $100 and tack on 0.6 to 0.7 points to global inflation.
The risk of further losses hasn’t faded. By 09:52 a.m. ET, the Dow had dropped 355.68 points, or 0.73%. The Cboe Volatility Index climbed to 21.96. LPL Financial’s Adam Turnquist said, “The market is taking it relatively well.” But Ohsung Kwon at Wells Fargo flagged a sharper S&P 500 decline—potentially to 6,000—if crude tops $100 a barrel. Reuters
Sherwin-Williams and 3M shares weighed heavily on the Dow out of the gate, together shaving around 112 points off the index. Because the Dow is price-weighted, stocks with heftier prices have greater pull—a $1 swing in any Dow name shifts the index by about 6.16 points.
Inflation remained in focus after new numbers dropped. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI slipped to 52.4 for February. But costs are biting: factory input prices surged to their highest in three and a half years, driven by tariffs and pricier energy.
Markets are still digesting fallout from the Iran conflict, especially potential disruptions to shipping and travel, after U.S. and Israeli forces killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to Reuters. Commerzbank chief economist Joerg Kraemer described the reaction so far as “a relatively moderate reaction.” On the other hand, Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar said he’s not ready to buy the dip yet—he expects “further downside in the coming days.” Reuters
Deal chatter cropped up on a different track. BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners, teaming up with EQT, is set to acquire AES for $33.4 billion, debt included. The cash offer lands at $15 per share, with closing eyed for late 2026 or into 2027. “Improved access to capital to invest,” is how Evercore ISI’s Nicholas Amicucci framed the upside for AES. Reuters
Ed Yardeni at Yardeni Research doesn’t see the risk-off tone sticking around for long. “We wouldn’t be surprised if any selloff … turns into a rally,” he wrote, pointing out that oil prices might retreat after the conflict wraps up. Investopedia
Aside from geopolitics, traders have their eyes on economic signals and corporate results for a dose of realism. The February U.S. jobs report is in focus, with expectations set at 60,000 new jobs, according to a Reuters Week Ahead note. Retail sales numbers are also coming, plus earnings updates from Broadcom, Best Buy, and Target.
Friday brings the next key event: the U.S. employment report for February, hitting at 8:30 a.m. ET. After that, the February CPI lands March 11, same time. Traders eye oil prices—if they hold up ahead of these numbers, it could sway rate-cut expectations.
