New York, March 4, 2026, 15:46 EST — Regular session
Chevron Corp dropped 1.4% to $186.15 during Wednesday afternoon trading, slipping alongside other oil majors. Exxon Mobil also lost ground, down roughly 1.3%.
Wall Street shifted back toward tech stocks after a report that Iran might be open to talks, but the S&P 500’s energy sector still posted the biggest losses—even as crude prices stayed high. “Long-lived and impacting the U.S. economy could mean more volatility,” said Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, pointing out the inflation threat from expensive energy. Reuters
Oil prices finished just shy of their highest mark since early 2025, with Brent closing at about $81 a barrel and U.S. crude holding close to $75 after a choppy session. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude inventories climbed by 3.5 million barrels last week. “Oil prices remain elevated,” noted Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Tradu.com. Reuters
The Strait of Hormuz—key route for about 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG—remains blocked for a fifth day, according to Reuters ship-tracking data. “Rates have increased from levels that owners and charterers will be used to,” Gallagher insurance broker Angus Blayney said, with commercial war-risk premiums climbing sharply. Reuters
S&P Global Platts is weighing other options for Middle East freight assessments and has put a pause on bids and offers for several price assessments connected with Hormuz transits—underscoring the rapid tightening in physical trade flows.
Goldman Sachs bumped up its Q2 Brent forecast by $10 to $76 per barrel, and raised its WTI target by $9 to $71, pointing to tight Hormuz flows and shrinking inventories. The bank added that “Brent prices would likely reach $100” if current Hormuz volumes persist for another five weeks. Reuters
UBS raised its Brent forecast, projecting an average of $71 for the first quarter and $72 for 2026. The bank flagged that prices could surge past $100 if the shutdown drags on. According to UBS, a swift easing of tensions might erase some of the current risk premium, though it’s not betting on a return to the $60 levels from earlier this year.
Chevron’s CFO Eimear P. Bonner surfaced in fresh filings, detailing a combination of option exercises and sales that added up to 45,800 shares, according to a Form 4. After the dust settled, Bonner reported holding 8,427 shares directly. These trades were all executed through a Rule 10b5-1 plan, which lets insiders schedule transactions ahead of time.
Inflation concerns remained firmly in focus after fresh economic data. February’s ISM services PMI jumped to 56.1, the strongest reading since July 2022. Goldman Sachs economists, for their part, figure that every $10 gain in oil could trim GDP growth by roughly 0.1 percentage point if those higher prices stick.
Chevron’s board signed off on a quarterly dividend of $1.78 a share, according to an SEC filing. The payout lands on March 10. That works out to an annualized yield near 3.8% at current share prices.
This setup looks shaky. Should diplomacy ease tensions in Hormuz and crude loses its risk premium, energy stocks could slip fast. On the flip side, if the conflict escalates, crude may surge, dragging down stocks more broadly and hurting demand.
Focus shifts next to Friday’s U.S. jobs data and whatever shakes out with Hormuz shipping and fuel flows. The Bureau of Labor Statistics puts out the February employment update at 8:30 a.m. ET on March 6.
