LONDON, March 9, 2026, 23:40 GMT
Shares of Fresnillo PLC barely budged Monday after the company’s annual results landed March 3: a record profit for 2025, $950 million headed out as dividends, but a warning—production is set to slip in 2026, and capex is on the rise. Fresnillo finished at 3,508 pence, down 0.23%. That’s a touch shallower than the FTSE 100’s 0.3% dip.
The balance is in focus right now, with mining stocks emerging as some of Europe’s best performers this year. Back on Feb. 25, Reuters pointed out that European mining shares notched record highs as metals rallied, pushing the sector to new levels of sensitivity when it comes to shifts in gold and interest rate outlooks.
Gold slid more than 1% Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and renewed oil-fueled inflation worries that dimmed prospects for rate cuts—bad news for an asset that doesn’t offer yield. Still, Jim Wyckoff of Kitco Metals pointed out the Middle East conflict might “provide a floor for gold prices.” Reuters recently put Fresnillo alongside Endeavour Mining and Hochschild among miners benefiting from firmer gold. Reuters
Fresnillo reported a 27.6% increase in adjusted revenue, reaching $4.65 billion in 2025. Total revenue ended up 30.5% higher at $4.56 billion. EBITDA surged, climbing 80.7% to $2.80 billion, while pretax profit soared 179.9% to $2.08 billion.
Chief Executive Octavio Alvídrez described it as a “record financial performance in 2025”. Silver production reached 48.7 million ounces, meeting the company’s own forecasts, and gold output came in at 600,300 ounces—topping guidance.
Fresnillo is targeting silver output between 42.0 million and 46.5 million ounces for 2026, a step down from the 48.7 million projected for 2025. Gold production is also seen falling, with a forecast of 500,000 to 550,000 ounces next year, compared to 600,300 ounces. The company has budgeted roughly $765 million for project spending and close to $260 million for exploration, which will cover drilling at Probe Gold in Canada.
The miner put forward a final ordinary dividend of 108.12 U.S. cents per share, pushing total ordinary payouts for 2025 up to $950 million—topping its typical range. Cash and liquid funds closed the year at $2.76 billion, with net cash sitting around $1.92 billion.
UBS analysts, in a March 4 note, said results came in ahead of forecasts and the balance sheet backed about $950 million in cash returns. Still, they flagged Fresnillo’s pipeline—also counting Probe Gold—which could spell as much as $3 billion in project outlays over the next five years. If project development ramps up, future payouts could take a hit.
This is the key risk. Fresnillo has pointed to permit and licence delays, tighter land access, hurdles for new mining concessions, and organised crime operating near its projects and exploration camps in Mexico—all of which threaten both project development and the company’s ability to replenish reserves.
Still, Fresnillo is putting its cash to work by expanding the pipeline. The Probe Gold acquisition, wrapped up in January, hands the miner a foothold in Quebec’s Val-d’Or district—plus 10 million ounces of gold resources.
