NEW YORK, March 11, 2026, 04:44 EDT
U.S. stock futures showed little direction at 4:44 a.m. EDT—Dow futures ticked up just 0.02%, S&P 500 futures added 0.02%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.06% earlier, around 3:40 a.m. ET. Traders are watching for the February Consumer Price Index report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET.
This report drops just a week out from the Federal Reserve’s meeting, and it’s hitting as stubborn gasoline prices and tariff effects muddy the outlook on inflation. Reuters-surveyed economists are looking for a 0.3% bump in February’s CPI versus January, and a 2.4% gain year-on-year. Strip out food and energy, and core CPI is expected to notch a 0.2% monthly increase, up 2.5% on the year. “Progress on lowering inflation is stalling out again,” said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo. Reuters
Tuesday’s cash session captured the market’s nerves. The S&P 500 dropped 0.21%, with the Dow off 0.07%. The Nasdaq managed to hang onto a sliver of green after early advances vanished amid fresh Middle East worries. “There’s a lot of confusion among investors,” noted Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder. Reuters
Oil prices tanked over 10% on Tuesday—the steepest single-day slide since 2022, Reuters said—lifting shares in Asia and Europe but barely helping U.S. stocks, which lagged behind in a break from their usual pattern since the war started. With that backdrop, today’s CPI number could matter even more.
Oracle grabbed attention ahead of the bell, its stock surging 8.3% after hours. The company hiked its fiscal 2027 revenue outlook to $90 billion—well past the $86.6 billion analysts had penciled in. Remaining performance obligations, Oracle’s gauge for future contracted revenue, vaulted 325% to $553 billion. The company is pushing hard to pull AI cloud deals from AWS and Azure. “A beat and a stress test result for the AI trade,” said eMarketer analyst Jacob Bourne. Reuters
Bank of America took another pass at guidance—this one focused on financials. Co-President Dean Athanasia projected first-quarter net interest income climbing at least 7%. He also put investment banking fees up 10%, while markets revenue is set for a low double-digit percentage gain. “Those are all good revenues,” he said. Reuters
Energy keeps throwing curveballs at the market. As of 0727 GMT on Wednesday, Brent crude had climbed to $88.39 a barrel, while U.S. WTI was up at $84.43, according to Reuters. Traders are weighing if the IEA’s unprecedented stockpile release can really counteract the supply crunch triggered by the Iran conflict. “How oil prices will evolve will depend on the duration of the Iran war,” said DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar. Reuters
There’s no mistaking the risk heading into today’s open: a hot CPI print or another crude rally could slam rate-sensitive growth names, bringing those stagflation fears right back. Reuters notes average U.S. gasoline prices have climbed above $3.50 per gallon—a 17% jump since the conflict started. Luke Tilley, Wilmington Trust’s chief economist, warns oil trading in the $85-$100 band for an extended stretch “materially increase[s] the risk of recession.” Reuters
