BENGALURU, March 11, 2026, 14:12 IST
Gold inched up early Wednesday, with some investors seeking safety ahead of U.S. inflation numbers. Spot gold—the immediate delivery benchmark—was last up 0.1% at $5,198.29 an ounce at 0641 GMT. U.S. April gold futures, though, dipped 0.7% to $5,206.40, paring gains from the previous rally.
This matters right now: bullion is squeezed by two moving forces—persistent haven demand from war risk on one side, and sliding oil prices taking the edge off inflation worries on the other. Oil slumped after the Wall Street Journal said the International Energy Agency floated a record-breaking release of strategic reserves. On top of that, February U.S. consumer price index numbers drop at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Friday, the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is also on deck.
Gold jumped close to 2% Tuesday, with the dollar losing ground and oil slipping off a peak not seen in over three years. Since bullion is priced in dollars, a weaker greenback cuts the cost for foreign buyers.
Geopolitical tensions are still front and center. U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have ramped up, with the conflict now closing off the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG movement. Nikos Kavalis, managing director at Metals Focus, pointed out that this backdrop has put gold’s “safe-haven attributes” back in the spotlight, keeping his team upbeat at current prices. Reuters
Kavalis expects gold to top $6,000 an ounce sometime in late 2026 or early 2027. Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, pointed out that oil’s pullback on Tuesday has some investors leaning back into the “debasement trade”— betting on looser policy and currency weakness to support hard assets. Reuters
It was a split session for precious metals. Spot silver dropped 0.8% to $87.74 per ounce, platinum edged down 0.6% to $2,188.27, while palladium managed a 0.5% gain to $1,663.39.
Still, the setup isn’t locked in. If CPI comes in stronger, Treasury yields and the dollar could jump, undercutting the case for Fed rate cuts and weighing on demand for a non-yielding asset. CME FedWatch—tracking fed funds futures—shows traders expect the Fed to stand pat next week, though markets are pricing in at least two rate reductions before year-end.
Gold’s rally has pushed prices up over 20% for the year, notching a series of record highs as investors react to ongoing geopolitical risks and anxiety about the economy. The gains could keep building, but there’s a catch: prices could come under pressure if inflation lingers or if oil markets and global tensions cool more quickly than traders anticipate.
