Bengaluru, March 10, 2026, 23:15 IST
Gold bounced back Tuesday, snapping out of its earlier slump as the dollar softened and the sharp drop in oil prices dialed back inflation concerns. Spot gold gained 1.7%, trading at $5,222.74 an ounce at 1514 GMT. April U.S. gold futures advanced 2.6% to $5,234.40. Silver jumped 2.8%, platinum moved up 2.4%, but palladium edged down 0.9%. According to Bart Melek at TD Securities, the pullback in oil is easing pressure on the Federal Reserve over rate cuts.
Gold’s bounce comes after the metal got knocked down on Monday by the reverse dynamic. With oil hovering close to $120 a barrel, inflation worries ramped up, the dollar strengthened, and bets on higher-for-longer U.S. rates mounted. Spot gold slid 1.5% to $5,091.62. Even so, Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, notes that sustained conflict could keep a floor under prices as investors look for safety.
Oil was the first to shift. Prices plunged, with crude dropping over 10% on Tuesday after President Donald Trump floated the possibility of easing tensions in the Middle East. G7 energy ministers, for their part, held off on any emergency stockpile release, opting instead for the International Energy Agency to weigh alternatives. Brent slid $10.45 to $88.51 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell $10.61 to $84.16. That pullback helped relieve one of gold’s persistent drivers: worries that a spike in energy would push inflation higher.
Gold found some breathing space as the dollar slipped. The dollar index edged down 0.1% to 98.74. Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, noted that traders had been betting heavily on a rapid resolution to the conflict, but renewed clashes in Iran complicated those assumptions.
Attention shifts to U.S. inflation numbers next. The Labor Department will publish February’s Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday—a release that could jolt rate forecasts if inflation runs above estimates.
The PCE price index lands Friday—the inflation metric the Fed keeps front and center. With policymakers not meeting again until March 17-18, gold traders face a tight stretch. Softer energy prices might offer some lift, but a hotter inflation number could wipe out Tuesday’s bounce.
Physical gold prices in Dubai aren’t tracking futures right now. Dealers in the city, a major route for bullion heading to India and other Asian destinations, reported discounts of $10 to $30 an ounce compared to London, with flight disruptions keeping metal stuck and buyers on the sidelines. MKS PAMP’s Nicky Shiels flagged the conflict’s “known unknowns” as a recipe for more volatility. Reuters
That’s the current risk. Across broader markets, traders are now betting the first Fed cut won’t happen until July. John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, pointed to a bigger issue: if rising oil prices start feeding into inflation expectations, it could derail the disinflation narrative—and any rebound in gold might not last long.
