NEW YORK, March 12, 2026, 09:50 EDT
Tesla shares slipped roughly 0.6%, losing $2.47 to land at $405.35 soon after Thursday’s open. Investors seemed to focus on new caution around 2026 deliveries and concerns over rising cash burn. This, despite February’s China-made sales surging 91% year over year.
This shift is significant. Tesla wants shareholders to back bigger bets on robotaxis, humanoid robots, and AI systems—even as the main auto segment loses steam. Analysts are now forecasting negative free cash flow in 2026, with the company planning over $20 billion in capital spending this year, according to a filing.
Visible Alpha’s numbers indicate analysts have slashed their average 2026 delivery growth projection to roughly 3.8%, down sharply from 8.2% back in January—deliveries being vehicles that actually reach customers. Over at LSEG, the data suggest Wall Street is now bracing for negative free cash flow of around $5.19 billion next year. Earlier, they were penciling in a $2.27 billion surplus.
Tesla is taking a hit from the end of U.S. EV tax credits, which had helped keep sticker prices down, along with stiffer competition across Europe, Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein told Reuters. The company’s self-driving tech still hasn’t cleared European regulators. “Two of the three largest markets” are showing declines, Goldstein said. He’s now projecting deliveries will shrink for a third consecutive year in 2026. Reuters
Tesla posted some stronger figures on the near-term front. Output of Shanghai-built Model 3 and Model Y cars, exports included, hit 58,600 units in February—a 91% jump over last year. Compared to January, though, that total was down 15.2%. Exports from the Shanghai facility reached roughly 20,000 vehicles.
The rebound followed a relatively soft year-ago stretch, when a partial production halt in February—linked to the updated Model Y—set up an easy comparison. Competition in China hasn’t eased up. Tesla rolled out a seven-year low-interest financing offer, prompting a response from BYD. BYD, now ahead of Tesla as the world’s biggest EV seller after last year, has also been making strides in Europe.
Tesla’s annual report points to capital spending topping $20 billion in 2026, with heavy investment flagged for compute infrastructure, data centers, and increased R&D and factory buildout. The plan also includes a wider charging and service footprint. Tesla wrapped up 2025 holding $44.06 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, according to the filing.
Cheaper trims of the Model 3 and Model Y might not be enough to jumpstart growth, some argue. Sam Fiorani of AutoForecast Solutions called the tweaks “not radical enough” to claw back share. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas flagged the risk of heavier spending dragging on both the stock and Tesla’s valuation. From Deepwater Asset Management, Gene Munster said flat deliveries would count as a “win,” but cautioned, “If the decline quickens, that’s a problem.” Reuters
Tesla landed a new non-automotive channel Thursday as Britain handed Tesla Energy Ventures a licence to sell household electricity, putting it up against names like Octopus Energy, British Gas, and EDF. The move widens Tesla’s energy footprint at a time when UK car sales dropped 8.9% in 2025. Investors, though, are still watching to see if car demand can steady, with outlays climbing and the robotaxi launch pushing ahead.
