LONDON, March 19, 2026, 11:54 GMT
Even after a brief shot above $100, WTI crude settled back under triple digits Thursday, edging up just 0.3% to $96.59 a barrel. Brent, by contrast, soared nearly 7% after Iranian attacks on Gulf energy sites. That divergence pushed WTI’s discount to Brent out to its widest in 11 years. Reuters
The distinction packs a punch now: West Texas Intermediate sets the tone for most U.S. oil, while Brent drives the seaborne trade. That spread has been stretching, and it’s not subtle—traders are tacking on a fatter premium for barrels tied to Middle East shipping and infrastructure risk. All this comes just as the Federal Reserve and other central banks warn that stubbornly high energy costs could keep inflation from cooling off. Reuters
Brent jumped $7.39 to reach $114.77 by 1026 GMT, having hit $119.13 earlier—just shy of the three-and-a-half-year high set on March 9. WTI briefly crossed above $100, touching $100.02 before pulling back. Reuters
QatarEnergy reported “extensive damage” at Ras Laffan—its main LNG hub—after Iranian missiles struck the site. Over in Saudi Arabia, officials said they intercepted missiles headed for Riyadh and a gas plant, with Saudi Aramco’s SAMREF refinery in Yanbu and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation’s Mina al-Ahmadi refinery both sustaining hits. Reuters
WTI hasn’t seen quite the same boost, with U.S. supply looking ample. The Energy Information Administration reported a 6.2 million barrel jump in commercial crude stocks last week, bringing the total to 449.3 million. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma—the hub for WTI futures—hit their highest level since August 2024. Reuters
“This crude stock build would certainly be more bearish if there was not so much else going on,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, highlighting the surge in cross-border flows connected to the Iran conflict. U.S. crude exports surged by 1.47 million barrels per day last week, hitting 4.9 million bpd, even as net imports declined, according to EIA data. Reuters
The spread is now wide enough to spark a renewed export push. Spot rates for Aframax tankers shipping crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe have jumped—around $6 million, up from $4.36 million prewar. Still, Signal Maritime’s Georgios Sakellariou says that’s not enough to slow bookings; cargoes are lining up for late March and early April. Reuters
The International Energy Agency’s member nations have signed off on releasing 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles, with the U.S. providing 172 million barrels out of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That’s pushing additional supply into the market, and it’s weighing on WTI, according to Vortexa senior analyst Rohit Rathod. Reuters
Oil’s surge is seeping through the broader market. The Fed left rates unchanged on Wednesday, sticking with its projection for just one quarter-point cut this year. Chair Jerome Powell said it’s early to gauge the war’s impact on the economy. Comerica chief economist Bill Adams warned the Fed won’t “ride to the economy’s rescue” if fuel prices keep climbing. Reuters
Still, there’s room for the trade to flip. Iraq resumes Kirkuk exports to Turkey, kicking off with 250,000 barrels daily. Libya’s shifting Sharara flows again post-fire, and reserves are showing up. Should Gulf outages hold steady, more barrels and rising Cushing inventories might drag WTI down more sharply than Brent. Reuters
Traders are on alert to see if additional parts of the region’s energy network are targeted next. “It is now hitting the plumbing of the global energy system,” Saxo strategist Charu Chanana said, arguing the conflict has spilled beyond the battlefield. Reuters
