NEW YORK, March 24, 2026, 1:13 PM EDT
The Dow Jones Industrial Average clawed its way up by roughly 146 points, or 0.3%, to around 46,348 midday Tuesday after starting in the red, as traders tracked a bounce in oil prices and speculated that U.S.-Iran friction might not escalate. The S&P 500 managed a 0.1% gain. But the Nasdaq slipped 0.3%, trailing its peers.
Monday’s 631-point relief rally wasn’t enough to steady investors. Crude climbed after that jump, with Iran pushing back against reports of talks with Washington. Traders dialed back Fed rate cut bets as energy prices looked set to keep inflation running high.
New numbers just cranked up the pressure. S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI—a snapshot of private-sector momentum—slipped to 51.4 for March, down from February’s 51.9. That’s the softest pace since April 2025, though it’s still above the crucial 50 line that marks expansion. Chris Williamson at S&P Global Market Intelligence summed it up as an “unwelcome combination”: growth is cooling off while inflation keeps climbing. Reuters
Money markets have now stripped out all bets on Fed cuts for this year, erasing two rate reductions that were in play before the Middle East conflict erupted. The Fed’s latest move—signaling just a single cut in 2026—pushed rate-sensitive tech stocks lower, leaving the Nasdaq lagging behind the Dow.
The Dow picked up some support from Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar, but losses in tech and communication-services shares dragged on the broader indexes. Because the Dow is price-weighted and tracks just 30 blue-chip names, pricier stocks have an outsized impact—unlike the S&P 500 or Nasdaq, where sector moves hit differently.
“There’s a lot of volatility in the market,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth, as investors weighed the fallout from both the conflict and U.S. policy shifts on risk assets. Tim Ghriskey at Ingalls & Snyder, serving as senior portfolio strategist, pointed to Trump’s postponed strikes as the spark behind “significant optimism” in stocks on Monday. Still, that enthusiasm faded somewhat after Iranian denials. Reuters
Tuesday’s action came right after a big bounce: the Dow jumped 631 points to 46,208.47 on Monday after Trump announced a five-day pause on planned strikes targeting Iranian power plants. “It’s all about the price of oil,” said Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, putting the near-term outlook in plain terms. Reuters
The risk is right in front of everyone. Brent crude jumped $4.19 to hit $104.13 a barrel by midday Tuesday. Macquarie is warning oil might surge to $150 if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed through April—a setup for higher costs across fuel, shipping, and manufacturing, with equities likely to take another hit.
Not all desks are bracing for a downturn. Barclays just took its 2026 year-end S&P 500 target up to 7,650 from 7,400, pointing to robust U.S. earnings and tech sector momentum as key offsets to lingering macro pressure. The strategists cautioned, though, that the path ahead probably won’t be smooth.
The Dow clawed back some ground Tuesday, but it’s still sitting far south of the 50,000 level it topped back in February. That record surge has faded, leaving the index seesawing on oil swings, war developments, and whatever signals the Fed decides to send next.
