NEW YORK, March 24, 2026, 13:40 EDT
Gold hovered right around $4,409 an ounce on Tuesday, sticking close to levels seen after Monday’s slide to a four-month low. Traders were caught between ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the threat of stubborn inflation and higher rates. By 11:00 a.m. ET, spot gold was almost flat at $4,408.77, with April U.S. gold futures unchanged at $4,409.30. Silver climbed 1.1%, platinum moved up 0.7%, and palladium slipped 1.3%. “If the war continues and energy prices keep grinding higher, it’s not great news for gold,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Reuters
This shift has teeth: bullion—traditionally a go-to in turbulent times—is getting squeezed by surging energy costs. Oil ticked higher Tuesday, the dollar caught a bid, and yields on the U.S. 10-year pushed up to 4.37%. Tough for an asset like gold, which doesn’t throw off any yield. Reuters
Monday’s action made clear how quickly things can flip. Spot gold at one stage plunged over 8%, and by 1:30 p.m. ET it was still off 1.8% at $4,407.06, after U.S. President Donald Trump put a hold on threatened strikes against Iranian infrastructure. “The selloff reflected expectations of rising interest rates,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, who also flagged the likelihood of further volatility. Reuters
According to Reuters, spot gold is now trading about 15% below its level at the start of the Iran conflict on Feb. 28, and sits roughly 22% off January’s record high. Since fighting broke out, gold-backed exchange-traded funds have bled $7.9 billion in outflows. John Reade from the World Gold Council expects “more profit taking and liquidation first,” while SP Angel’s John Meyer notes “the bigger picture remains intact,” citing persistent G7 deficits, stubborn inflation, and ongoing central bank reserve diversification. Reuters
That debate has taken a new turn. On Tuesday, Jamie McGeever at Reuters pointed out bullion slid 17% in March, marking it as one of the month’s worst-performing traditional safe havens—a stark departure from gold’s typical role during periods of conflict. Reuters
No favors from the macro environment. Euro zone business growth barely moved in March—higher energy prices squeezed supply chains and sent costs up. Chris Williamson of S&P Global Market Intelligence called the survey a “ringing stagflation alarm bells” moment, the classic mix of stagnating growth and rising inflation. Reuters
Gold sits in a strange spot—caught between safe-haven demand and fast selling. When nerves jangle, investors jump in. But as soon as funds need cash or rates push higher, gold gets dumped just as quickly.
Any shift could land fast—diplomatic progress would hit oil and yields. But if central banks double down on inflation, gold could stay pinned. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill on Tuesday flagged “upside risks to price stability” tied to Gulf tensions. Should other major banks take up that worry, the usual crisis premium for gold might not materialize. Reuters
