New York, March 28, 2026, 13:04 EDT
Gold snapped back this week, jumping 2.6% Friday to close at $4,491.78 an ounce, erasing some losses after Monday’s tumble to a four-month low at $4,097.99. That rebound wrapped up a volatile week where spot prices whipsawed between about $4,100 and $4,600, with traders shifting gears from rate jitters to eyeing bargains.
Gold isn’t following its usual safe-haven playbook, weighed down by surging oil and rising rates. Crude sits above $110 a barrel, the dollar index comes in at 100.17, and U.S. 10-year yields are parked at 4.438%. That’s kept investors leaning into bets on a more hawkish Fed stance. Since gold doesn’t pay interest, those higher Treasury yields make it less attractive.
Fed officials aren’t offering much relief. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson flagged rising fuel and fertilizer costs as a threat—warning they could push inflation expectations higher and make them stickier. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin called the oil shock a new layer of “fog” for policy, arguing for rates to stay put until the outlook comes into focus. Reuters
Thursday saw the sharpest drop, with spot gold sliding 2.7% to $4,384.38 as the dollar strengthened and oil prices pushed higher. Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, warned bullion could slip “below $4,000” if the conflict drags on. On the flip side, a ceasefire with renewed rate-cut optimism might drive it back toward $5,000. Reuters
The rebound on Friday had the feel of a technical move, not a shift in the underlying story. Daniel Pavilonis at RJO Futures pointed to the dip under the 200-day moving average—a level traders monitor for direction—as setting up “a really good opportunity” on the buy side. Commerzbank bumped up its gold forecast for year-end, now seeing $5,000 an ounce instead of $4,900, saying the recent drop might not stick. Reuters
Cheaper prices pulled in a bit of physical demand. In India, dealers slashed discounts down to $61 an ounce from last week’s $75. Over in China, premiums tightened, now sitting at $14-$18. Bernard Sin of MKS PAMP pointed out that demand had “cooled,” but central-bank buying and import quotas were still lending support to the market. Reuters
Other precious metals stabilized heading into the weekend. Spot silver jumped 2.2% on Friday, reaching $69.54 an ounce. Platinum moved up 2.3% to $1,868.89, while palladium climbed 1.8% to $1,377.25. The three had been dragged down during Thursday’s selloff.
Still, the bounce looks shaky. Should oil prices push higher and the dollar remain stubbornly strong, traders could double down on bets against imminent Fed rate cuts—putting more pressure on bullion. Wyckoff’s call for prices below $4,000 continues to overshadow sentiment, while a ceasefire might sap safe-haven demand for gold before any optimism around lower rates can get traction.
The real pressure lands with next week’s U.S. payrolls, set for April 3—though Wall Street will be dark for Good Friday. Reuters’ survey pegs March job gains at 55,000 and unemployment holding at 4.4%. This follows a bruising stretch: S&P 500 down five weeks running, with both the Nasdaq and Dow confirmed in correction territory. Gold, for now, is tracking moves in oil, the Fed, and every fresh development out of Iran.
