SYDNEY, April 20, 2026, 18:30 AEST
Australian stocks eked out a gain on Monday, with the S&P/ASX 200 inching up just 6.4 points, or 0.1%, to 8,953.30. Gains among gold miners and consumer names were enough to counter losses in banks and energy shares. For nine sessions running now, the benchmark has barely budged, closing within 0.3% of this mark. “Investors were waiting for clearer signals,” said Hebe Chen at Vantage Markets. Indo Premier
This is starting to show up in Australian markets and business sentiment, as the geopolitical shock spills over. Optimism for a rapid resolution in the Middle East faded after Iran walked away from a second round of talks and the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship, sending Brent crude up about 6%. Most Asian bourses posted gains, but Australia barely inched higher, traders eyeing whether ships keep moving through the Strait of Hormuz with Tuesday’s ceasefire deadline looming.
Signs of local fallout are already surfacing. Just last week, Qantas and Westpac flagged the double whammy of pricier fuel and a slowdown in customer activity as potential drags on their earnings. Consumer sentiment, meanwhile, slid 12.5% in April—marking the lowest level in over two years. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser described the risk as a “stagflationary shock”: weaker growth coming hand-in-hand with quicker inflation. Reuters
Banks fumbled on Monday, dragging the sector lower. National Australia Bank flagged first-half credit impairment charges jumping to A$706 million, nearly doubling last year’s A$348 million tally. The lender booked new provisions for transport and agriculture, blaming stubborn fuel and diesel prices, and also boosted reserves tied to construction and commercial real estate.
NAB wasn’t the only one. Just last week, Westpac reported its provisions had hit the highest mark since the pandemic; energy-market chaos has been fanning inflation and shaking up rates. Solaris Investment Management’s Michael Bell pointed to a familiar theme: banks are stacking up extra protection in shaky sectors, with macro worries hanging over the industry.
Energy stocks bucked the usual trend, slipping even as crude showed strength. The sector dropped 3% to hit its lowest point in a month. Woodside shed 3%, Santos slipped 1.3%, and Viva Energy tumbled roughly 9% after revealing its Geelong refinery will be stuck running at about 60% capacity for now, following last week’s fire.
Buyers showed up in spots. Zip surged close to 8%—one of the session’s top performers. The move followed last week’s third-quarter update, which highlighted record cash earnings and an improved FY26 outlook. The company is now aiming for at least A$260 million in cash EBTDA.
The ASX remains vulnerable here. Should Hormuz traffic start flowing again and oil prices retreat from Monday’s surge, Australian borrowers, airlines, and retailers might catch a break fast. If that doesn’t happen, though, Tim Waterer at KCM Trade said the pinch could intensify for companies hit hardest by rising energy bills, tangled supply chains, and tighter lending.
UPDATE: April 20, 2026, 15:05 AEDT – Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 held near flat levels around 8,950 as losses in National Australia Bank deepened after it warned impairment charges would double to about A$706 million amid Middle East-driven volatility, with the bank flagging roughly a “45% chance of recession” in its latest outlook Reuters. Oil’s surge toward $95 a barrel following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is feeding inflation risks and denting confidence, with HSBC economist Paul Bloxham warning Australia faces a potential “stagflationary” shock, while Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Andrew Hauser called the outlook a “nightmare scenario” for policymakers News.com.au. Despite higher crude, energy stocks lagged and banks remained mixed, with NAB down about 3–4% while peers edged higher, underscoring fragile sentiment News.com.au. Analysts say lenders can absorb the hit thanks to strong margins and pricing power, but the sharp rise in provisions highlights mounting stress in transport, agriculture and real estate sectors as fuel costs surge Reuters. Meanwhile, signs of demand destruction are emerging in global oil markets, with refinery cuts accelerating, reinforcing expectations that elevated energy prices could start weighing more heavily on growth in coming weeks Investing.com Australia.
