NEW YORK, April 26, 2026, 15:06 EDT
Circle Internet Group starts the week with shares holding close to $100, as investors size up whether USDC’s growth is enough to stay ahead of questions about compliance, margins, and what the stock is really worth.
This comes at a tricky moment. Circle has scheduled its first-quarter earnings release for May 11, offering investors this year’s first comprehensive snapshot of reserve income, USDC in circulation, and what it’s spending to expand its payments network. The call kicks off at 8 a.m. ET, according to the company.
Circle shares slipped 0.4% to $99.66, bouncing between $97.57 and $102.95 during the latest session. According to MarketBeat’s Sunday report, 24 firms give the stock an average “Hold” rating and peg the 12-month target around $127.24. MarketBeat
USDC falls into the stablecoin category—a cryptocurrency meant to maintain a fixed value, most often pegged to the dollar. Circle maintains that each USDC is fully redeemable for a U.S. dollar and backed by reserves in cash and equivalents. Those reserves, crucially, are a significant revenue stream for the company.
The strategy paid off in the fourth quarter. Circle posted a 77% jump in total revenue and reserve income to $770 million, topping Wall Street forecasts. USDC circulation surged 72% year-on-year, hitting $75.3 billion. Seaport Research Partners’ Jeff Cantwell pointed to the rapid scaling of USDC as the “key takeaway,” according to comments to Reuters. CEO Jeremy Allaire, for his part, said lower rates might boost adoption by speeding up money movement. Reuters
Circle is pushing to position USDC as more than just a tool for crypto trading, aiming to make it part of mainstream payments. On April 22, OSL Group and a Circle affiliate rolled out a partnership designed to boost USDC’s reach on OSL’s trading and payments platforms. The deal includes direct one-to-one USD-to-USDC conversions, plus trading pairs with BTC, ETH, SOL, USD and USDT. “Institutions are seeking trusted, transparent infrastructure to move value globally in real time,” Circle Chief Business Officer Kash Razzaghi said. Circle
Competition in stablecoins is intense. Tether’s USDT holds the lion’s share, while USDC sits as the top regulated competitor. According to DeFiLlama, the entire stablecoin market totals around $320.6 billion. USDT controls 59.19%—underscoring just how much ground Circle needs to make up, even with overall market growth.
The risk picture looks more acute now. Circle is staring down a proposed class-action suit linked to the April 1 Drift Protocol breach. Plaintiffs claim the company allowed attackers to transfer close to $230 million in USDC following a $280 million exploit. The suit alleges negligence and aiding in unlawful conversion, though none of this has been proven in court.
Circle isn’t buying the argument that it should serve as some kind of unregulated gatekeeper. Dante Disparte, chief strategy officer and head of global policy and operations, stated in an April 10 post that Circle only freezes USDC if there’s a legal mandate. According to Disparte, speeding up these interventions isn’t about taking matters into Circle’s own hands—it comes down to having more defined legal frameworks.
Some analysts are now factoring that problem into their outlook for the shares. Morgan Stanley’s James Faucette pointed to the Drift incident as a fresh concern over Circle’s anti-money-laundering and KYC practices, not to mention whether Circle can reverse disputed transactions, according to Investing.com.
Regulatory attention is zeroing in on this issue. The Bank for International Settlements last week labeled global coordination on stablecoin rules as “critical” and flagged risks of regulatory arbitrage if oversight stays divided. The BIS also noted that USDT and USDC now make up about 85% of all stablecoins circulating worldwide. Circle, when approached by Reuters, declined to comment on the BIS statements. Reuters
Circle’s May 11 report isn’t just a revenue check. Investors are watching USDC circulation figures, reserve income’s resilience if rates dip, and whether partnerships like OSL will help transform the stablecoin into a payments product with sustainable fees. How much Circle can back up those points with numbers could set the direction for the stock’s next move.
