VELDHOVEN, Netherlands, May 3, 2026, 00:05 CEST
- ASML’s U.S. shares finished 0.83% lower at $1,427.02 on Friday. Its Amsterdam listing stayed closed for Labour Day.
- Investors are balancing the higher 2026 sales outlook with concerns over export-control risks related to China.
- ASML stays at the heart of the AI hardware supply chain, but whether it can deliver machines quickly enough is now a key issue for the market.
ASML Holding N.V.’s U.S. shares lost ground on Friday, slipping 0.83% to close at $1,427.02. The move comes after a brisk rally tied to AI enthusiasm and a bump in the chipmaker’s 2026 outlook. With Euronext Amsterdam shut for Labour Day, only the Nasdaq-listed ADRs were trading.
That’s front and center because ASML now stands out as a key barometer for AI chip investment. The company’s gear feeds directly into Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. Notably, ASML is the only source for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems—these machines use light to etch the most intricate circuits required for leading-edge processors.
The question isn’t just about demand anymore. For ASML, the focus shifts to whether it can convert that demand into actual shipments, all while navigating export controls that restrict sales to China—a market that used to be its biggest.
ASML on April 15 pegged its 2026 net sales outlook at €36 billion to €40 billion, targeting a gross margin in the 51%-53% range. For the first quarter, the company posted net sales of €8.8 billion and net income came in at €2.8 billion.
Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said chip demand is “outpacing supply,” with customers already ramping up capacity plans for 2026 and later. The company put its second-quarter sales guidance between €8.4 billion and €9.0 billion. ASML
ASML finished at €1,222.40 in Amsterdam on April 30, its final close before the holiday, Euronext data shows. With U.S. trading still active Friday, the ADR now serves as the latest signal for investors ahead of the European open.
The stock’s been swinging in both directions. Following ASML’s first-quarter update, Reuters said the chipmaker bumped up its full-year sales target, now looking for €34 billion to €39 billion, citing stronger AI-driven demand. LSEG analysts, for their part, were looking for €37.7 billion.
ASML has dropped its practice of reporting new bookings every quarter, according to Reuters, which noted that the company viewed the metric as a source of needless swings in its earnings-day results. Now, investors will be leaning harder on the company’s sales outlooks, shipment details, and updates on customer capacity.
Up at the top, competition looks thin. ASML stands alone in EUV tech, without a direct rival, but in DUV lithography—a legacy technique still needed for chips—it goes up against Nikon from Japan and China’s SMEE. Bernstein’s David Dai pointed out to Reuters that demand pressure is heavier on “DUV.” Reuters
The trouble spot? China. U.S. lawmakers are pushing the MATCH Act, which takes direct aim at chipmaking-equipment sales and support in the country. According to Reuters, ASML continues selling older DUV machines to Chinese buyers. Last year, China represented 33% of ASML’s business—Reuters says that number is likely dropping to 20% this year.
Analysts are split over how big the impact could get. Michael Roeg at Degroof Petercam told Reuters he’s thinking a sales hit somewhere in the single digits. On the other hand, JPMorgan’s Sandeep Deshpande figures that if the Netherlands goes through with enforcing tighter rules, ASML’s earnings per share could drop as much as 10%.
Speaking at the annual meeting, Fouquet addressed a key issue facing investors: the worry that ASML could turn into a choke point for the industry. “By all possible means,” he insisted, ASML intends to sidestep that role. He warned that if the company misses delivery deadlines, customers might start eyeing alternatives. Reuters
Shareholders weren’t left out: ASML’s annual meeting signed off on a €2.70 final dividend for each ordinary share, pushing the total payout for 2025 up to €7.50. The board also got the green light to buy back as much as 10% of issued share capital by Oct. 22, 2027, pending a nod from the supervisory board.
