New York, May 13, 2026, 06:35 EDT
- Nasdaq 100 futures were out in front early, rebounding in premarket trade. S&P 500 futures climbed as well, but Dow futures trailed, with chips catching a bid as investors positioned ahead of Trump’s China visit.
- This isn’t a straightforward risk-on shift. April CPI climbed 0.6% from the prior month and 3.8% compared to a year ago, with energy accounting for over 40% of the monthly gain.
- Bulls point to relief from AI momentum and China headlines. Bears, though, flag stubborn oil-driven inflation, a diminished outlook for Fed cuts, and the S&P holding close to records.
Futures action was choppy ahead of the bell, with Nasdaq buyers stepping in while the rest of the market lagged. At 5:35 a.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 E-minis climbed 0.82%. S&P 500 E-minis were higher by 0.23%. Dow E-minis slipped 0.3%. That divergence highlights where the money’s going—tech and chip names are getting the bid, not the whole market, as investors process Tuesday’s inflation surprise.
Here’s what flipped the chart: tech took a hit Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index, sending the S&P 500 down 0.16% and Nasdaq sliding 0.71%. Fast-forward to this morning, and buyers started to circle back—right into semiconductors, the group stung most on the drop. The shift followed President Donald Trump’s China visit, where Nvidia boss Jensen Huang joined the business delegation. That lineup rekindled bets on a friendlier approach to chip sales, supply chains, and rare earth exports.
This is what’s making the move significant right now. Investors are juggling two narratives: hopes for some trade and AI-driven relief, and a stickier inflation backdrop. April’s CPI came in with a 0.6% increase, cooling from March’s 0.9%, while the core measure — excluding food and energy — advanced 0.4%. Energy jumped 3.8% just in April, up 17.9% from a year ago, and gasoline soared 28.4% year over year.
Oil’s still running the show. Brent hovered close to $106 a barrel, pullback or not, while tension in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. “The main driver in the background,” is how Tommy von Brömsen, FX strategist at Handelsbanken, put it regarding Hormuz. The longer the fighting drags out, the more complicated things get for central banks, he said. That’s the macro drag: higher oil feeds inflation, inflation lifts yields, and lofty yields squeeze expensive stocks. Reuters
The Fed’s shifting rate outlook has taken center stage. According to Reuters, markets are now pricing out a rate cut in 2026, and have raised the odds of at least a 25-basis-point December hike to over 28%. Over at Polymarket, the “Fed rate hike in 2026” contract is showing a 27% chance of a Yes. Kalshi’s December Fed-funds market places the likelihood of rates ending up in the “above 3.50%” range at roughly 53%. That’s still a tilt toward tight policy over any easing. Reuters
The chip stocks are running out front. Micron jumped 6.2% premarket, Reuters noted, with Western Digital gaining 3.1%, Seagate up 2.8%, and SanDisk climbing 5.3%. Not just noise—these memory and storage players are wired straight into AI data center demand, and their fate’s tied up in the U.S.-China supply chain back-and-forth. Nvidia, Qualcomm, Micron, Apple—they all have skin in this. If China tensions cool, the revenue picture could shift quick for them—much faster than for the laggards elsewhere.
Bulls argue earnings are still driving this market, with AI-fueled capital spending absorbing the oil hit. Over in Asia, Korean equities shook off early declines to notch a record close, as Nomura analysts pointed to “robust AI-led exports” out of South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Malaysia as a buffer against higher energy prices. Morgan Stanley, for its part, said the U.S.-China summit could deliver some index upside—if the trade truce holds. Reuters
The bear camp sees trouble. Stocks have climbed hard; earnings season is winding down. Now, investors face inflation, oil, and Fed uncertainty—without the boost from strong company reports. “Inflation is not getting any better unless oil prices go down,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO and portfolio manager at InfraCap. Hatfield warned the market might stall as post-earnings nerves take over from recent optimism. Reuters
The Dow mostly just plodded, echoing the same theme—this isn’t a wide move into cyclicals. Healthcare gave the Dow a lift on Tuesday, but tech weakness pulled the Nasdaq down. Early today, gains centered on semiconductors and China plays, not a sweeping rebound across banks or industrials, utilities, or consumers. If bond yields tick up, stocks at the open could be shaky.
Earnings haven’t left the conversation—just taking a back seat to macro for now. Cisco hits after the bell, with its call kicking off at 4:30 p.m. ET. Options pricing is flagging a potentially sharp swing in the shares before the week’s out. This one’s another AI infrastructure pulse check for investors, as Cisco trades just off all-time highs. Analysts are zeroed in on whether demand for data-center switching can stick, even as expenses climb.
Eyes now turn to the Producer Price Index, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, ahead of the market open. The PPI tracks wholesale inflation before it filters down to consumers. A cooler number could fuel the Nasdaq’s rebound, bolstering the case that April’s CPI jump was really just fallout from the oil spike, not a broad inflation move. If the headline comes in too hot, though, bets on another Fed hike could quickly reemerge.
Premarket tone stays focused, hardly exuberant. AI-related names are picking up buyers on this dip, while the China trade is getting a cautious nod. Still, a sharp move in oil, a surprise PPI number, or another yield spike could quickly erase these early gains. Bulls are leaning on chips. Bears point to inflation. Both sides aren’t out of arguments yet this morning.
