São Paulo, May 15, 2026, 16:06 BRT
Ambev slipped 0.25% to 15.73 reais late Friday in São Paulo trading. UBS had just lifted its target on the brewer to $2.90 from $2.65 but kept its Sell rating. The market is weighing a strong Brazil beer quarter against stretched valuations, especially after the shares jumped on the results.
Ambev shares are up 13.49% since Jan. 1, according to MarketScreener. The brewer is betting on Carnival demand, premium brands and the FIFA World Cup to keep volumes up while the broader consumer market stays slow.
Ambev’s ADR closed down 6 cents at $3.09 in New York, with the last trade happening at 18:50 UTC. The brewer’s U.S.-listed shares value the company at about $48.66 billion.
Ambev posted first-quarter profit of 3.89 billion reais, up 2.1% year-on-year. Organic net revenue rose 8.1%. Normalized EBITDA increased by 10.1% to 7.56 billion reais. EBITDA margin widened 60 basis points to 33.6%.
Brazil Beer outperformed. Volumes rose 1.2%, reaching a new first-quarter high, Ambev said. The premium tier lifted results, helping net revenue jump 9.6% for the segment. Premium and super-premium labels like Stella Artois, Corona, and Original grew in the low twenties, the company reported.
CEO Carlos Lisboa called it “a solid start to 2026” in the company’s statement. On the earnings call, Lisboa used the phrase “the year of socialization,” tying the company’s move to more events and bigger crowds—and, by extension, more beer sold.
The company’s pitch centers on the World Cup, CFO Guilherme Fleury told analysts. Fleury said past World Cups have usually added 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to yearly industry growth. Most of that shows up in the second and third quarters. Fleury pointed to Ambev’s Zé Delivery and BEES platforms as main ways the company plans to push its campaign this year.
Cash flow is still strong for Ambev. Operating cash flow jumped 162.5% to 3.16 billion reais this quarter, driven by higher EBITDA and improvements in working capital. The board approved a 1.2 billion reais interest-on-capital payment for July 6, with another payout—around 700 million reais—set for December. Interest-on-capital is Brazil’s way of making shareholder payments.
Costs are still the main question. Ambev posted an 8.5% jump in consolidated cash cost of goods sold per hectoliter, the cash it spends to make every 100 liters, with some non-cash items taken out. For Brazil Beer, cash COGS excluding marketplace products shot up 14.6%. The company left its 2026 Brazil Beer cash COGS forecast steady and is still seeing a 4.5% to 7.5% rise. Fleury said those cost pressures should start easing in the second quarter.
Heineken is still pressing. The brewer opened a $462 million plant in Minas Gerais last year, moving into the same premium and pure-malt market where Ambev has said it’s gaining. For Ambev, that means premium isn’t only for growth—it’s about not giving up share.
Some aren’t waiting on the sidelines. MarketScreener’s average rating from 18 analysts is Hold, with a mean target of 15.87 reais—just above the last close. There’s not much room for mistakes at Ambev. The job now is to turn World Cup buzz and its digital programs into real sales, and keep the margins that just got investors’ attention.
