Washington, June 9, 2026, 19:01 EDT
- Social Security’s retirement and survivor fund is on track to run out of reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032. After that, it will have enough to cover 78% of promised benefits, according to .
- Trustees mentioned lower birth rates, softer immigration forecasts and less tax collected from Social Security benefits due to President Donald Trump’s 2025 tax law.
- Medicare’s hospital insurance fund is now forecast to be depleted in 2033, putting pressure on a key program. Social Security’s disability fund is still seen holding up over the 75-year period.
Social Security’s main retirement and survivor benefits fund is now seen running out of reserves in late 2032, according to the latest trustees report Tuesday. If Congress doesn’t act, automatic benefit cuts would hit, and only about 78% of scheduled payments would go out based on incoming payroll taxes. That would affect millions.
Social Security’s funding problem isn’t just a future risk now. The agency said it paid out $1.60 trillion in benefits in 2025, reaching 70 million people by year-end and collecting payroll taxes from about 185 million workers.
Old-Age and Survivors Insurance, or OASI, holds the reserves for Social Security retiree and survivor payments. If OASI is depleted, payments don’t stop right away—what would change is that the reserves are gone, so benefits would have to come straight from taxes collected, which wouldn’t fully cover what’s promised by law.
Trustees flagged a weaker demographic outlook. The new report now puts the long-term fertility rate at 1.75 children per woman, down from 1.90 last year, and lowers some of its immigration numbers. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is expected to hit revenue as less income tax will get paid on Social Security benefits. Higher near-term wage and productivity numbers offered some relief, but not enough.
Social Security’s retirement, survivor and disability funds together are expected to pay all scheduled benefits until 2034, matching last year’s projection. After that, inflows would cover 83% of benefits, then drop to 65% by 2100. The disability fund by itself is still projected to stay above water over the full 75-year window.
Social Security Commissioner Frank J. Bisignano said the agency sees keeping the trust funds strong as “inseparable from our mission” and will work with Congress. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said lawmakers have more to do, pointing to the reports as evidence that future beneficiaries’ benefits are still at risk. U.S. Department of the Treasury
Outside groups pushed for a quicker response. AARP CEO Myechia Minter-Jordan called the report “a wake-up call.” Nancy Altman, who leads Social Security Works, told CBS News, “If we cut Social Security, nobody will be able to retire.” CBS News
Margaret Spellings, president and CEO of the Bipartisan Policy Center, pointed out senators elected in 2026 will still be serving when Social Security hits insolvency. Jonathan Schwabish, senior fellow at the Urban Institute, called the trust fund just “money in, money out.” GV Wire
Medicare gets the closest comparison in the trustees’ reports out Tuesday. The Hospital Insurance trust fund, used for inpatient hospital costs, is now seen running out of reserves by the second quarter of 2033, a quarter sooner than the last projection. At that point, it would have enough income to cover 89% of promised benefits, according to the .
The forecast did not call for a direct benefit cut. Congress could raise taxes, adjust benefit formulas, shift costs or try some mix of options. Changes in wages, immigration or birth rates could also affect the outlook. The trustees warned, though, that putting off action until the fund is depleted would mean sharper fixes over a shorter period and for fewer workers and retirees.
Social Security would need a payroll tax hike to 16.65% from 12.40%, a 25.2% cut to scheduled benefits, or a mix of both to stay solvent for 75 years if changes start in 2026, trustees said. Delaying action to 2034 pushes the required payroll tax rate to 17.30% or forces a 28.5% cut to benefits, according to their report.
Social Security got its last big rewrite around 40 years ago, when Congress raised the retirement age step by step. The report out Tuesday keeps current monthly benefits in place. But it gives lawmakers another look at a long-running, dollar-driven issue.
