BENGALURU, July 2, 2026, 21:37 (IST)
- Spot gold climbed 2.4% to $4,126.97 an ounce after U.S. payrolls for June came in below estimates.
- April and May payrolls got revised down by 74,000 jobs, wiping out the 57,000 gain seen in June.
- Jobless claims held at 215,000. The focus was on possible rate cuts, not job loss fears.
- Central banks added a net 41 tonnes of gold to reserves in May, valued at roughly $5.4 billion using Thursday’s spot rate, according to the .
Gold jumped past $4,100 on Thursday after the latest U.S. payrolls data pointed to a softer labor market than markets had been expecting. The headline was a 57,000 job gain for June, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics cut April and May’s numbers by a combined 74,000, so the revisions wiped out more jobs than were added last month. Economists in the Reuters poll were looking for a 110,000 increase.
Spot gold climbed 2.4% to $4,126.97 an ounce as of 9:00 a.m. EDT. U.S. gold futures gained 1.4% to $4,139.20. The dollar index dropped 0.7%.
David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, said “The lower-than-expected jobs number” weakened the case for more rate hikes. He added that gold “has a tendency to perform better in lower interest rate environments.” Reuters
| U.S. labor/rate gauge | Latest reading | Investor point |
|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | 57,000 gained; Reuters poll was for 110,000 | Payrolls missed consensus by 53,000 |
| April/May revisions | Revised down by 74,000 | Revisions erased more jobs than June added |
| Average hourly earnings | Up 0.3% from prior month; up 3.5% on year | Earnings growth kept inflation fears down |
| Initial jobless claims | 215,000, a decline of 1,000 | Layoffs still low |
| Fed futures | September hike odds down to 60%, from 75% pre-payrolls | Traders cut rate-hike odds |
The table shows hiring is slowing, but layoffs aren’t picking up. For investors, that mix gives gold traders some reason to argue for rate cuts, yet leaves the recession call murky.
Eric Merlis, who co-heads global markets at Citizens, said “the labour market is still adding jobs and wages show few signs of accelerating,” according to Reuters.
ADP payrolls data pointed to more cooling in the labor market. Automatic Data Processing Inc. NASDAQ:ADP reported U.S. private companies hired 98,000 workers in June, with annual pay up 4.4%. “The pace of hiring is telling a story of both supply and demand,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. “For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation.” ADP Media Center
FOREX.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada warned not to read too much into a single payroll number as a Fed signal. “One month’s worth of data will never be enough. The Fed’s focus is on inflation,” he told Kitco. Kitco
Central banks boosted gold reserves by 41 tonnes in May, according to World Gold Council numbers out Thursday. That’s about $5.4 billion worth of bullion at Reuters’ spot price. The official sector stayed active as a buyer for another month.
| Central bank activity in May | Net change | 2026 year-to-date, where stated |
|---|---|---|
| Poland | up 18 tonnes | up 64 tonnes |
| China | added 10 tonnes | added 25 tonnes |
| Uzbekistan | up 9 tonnes | up 33 tonnes |
| Kazakhstan | added 7 tonnes | added 20 tonnes |
| Singapore | added 4 tonnes | Not stated |
| Russia | down 6 tonnes | down 34 tonnes |
| Turkey | down 3 tonnes | down 81 tonnes |
Central bank gold buying stayed focused in May, with Poland topping the list. China increased reserves for a 20th month. Russia and Turkey kept selling, according to WGC numbers.
Oil slipped, taking some heat off inflation worries. Brent crude dropped 1.3% to $70.66, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost 1.5% to $67.54 after Qatar said U.S.-Iran talks on the Strait of Hormuz moved forward. Both contracts touched lows not seen since late February.
Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank said earlier oil prices drifted lower as talks in Qatar went on. “There is a chance that we could see even lower prices,” he said. Reuters
Gold bulls face a risk that the recent rally depends on Fed bets. CME Group Inc.’s NASDAQ:CME FedWatch tool showed fed funds futures traders dropping odds of a September hike to around 60%, down from roughly 75% before the jobs data. Physical demand is relying on official buyers, who bought 41 tonnes in May.
