New York, July 2, 2026, 15:02 EDT
- Netflix rose about 5.5%, beating a 2.0% drop in QQQ and a 5.4% fall in the semiconductor ETF.
- The stock is still below its 50-day and 200-day averages, leaving the rally short of a trend break.
- Netflix reports second-quarter results on July 16, three days after its MLB Home Run Derby stream.
- Nasdaq U.S. equity markets are closed Friday for the Independence Day observance.
Netflix, Inc. NASDAQ:NFLX rose more than 5% on Thursday, a rare green patch in a weak tech tape, as traders bought the streaming stock two weeks before earnings and ahead of a July live-sports test that may matter more for ads than for pure viewing time.
The stock traded at $78.24, up $4.05, or about 5.5%, with volume above 35 million shares. It had opened at $75.13 and touched $78.425, while Invesco QQQ Trust NASDAQ:QQQ fell about 2.0% and VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) dropped about 5.4%.
| Security | Ticker | Last | Day move | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix | NASDAQ:NFLX | $78.24 | +5.5% | Bounce before Q2 results |
| Invesco QQQ Trust | NASDAQ:QQQ | $710.62 | -2.0% | Nasdaq-100 proxy |
| SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | NYSEARCA:SPY | $742.75 | -0.4% | Broad U.S. market proxy |
| VanEck Semiconductor ETF | NASDAQ:SMH | $586.68 | -5.4% | Chip selloff gauge |
| Walt Disney Co. | NYSE:DIS | $98.48 | +2.9% | Streaming and media peer |
Market data were at about 2:47 p.m. EDT. Netflix’s market value was about $336.3 billion, nearly 1.9 times Walt Disney Co.’s NYSE:DIS $174.4 billion value, despite Disney also gaining on the day.
The data point that matters is the split between price action and trend. Benzinga said Netflix was still about 7.2% below its 50-day simple moving average and 18.7% below its 200-day average, even after Thursday’s rise. That leaves the stock in rebound mode, not yet in a clear reversal.
Netflix has a near-term catalyst stack. The company said it will post second-quarter financial results and its business outlook on July 16 at about 1:01 p.m. Pacific time, followed by its earnings interview at 1:45 p.m. Pacific time.
Before that, Netflix streams the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby on July 13, with special coverage at 7 p.m. Eastern and the event at 8 p.m. Eastern. The event is not available in all countries, Netflix’s help page said.
The live-event angle is why the rally carries more weight than a standard dip buy. In April, co-CEO Theodore Sarandos said Netflix’s sports strategy was focused on “big breakthrough events,” rather than full regular-season packages. Co-CEO Gregory Peters said Netflix still expected to deliver $3 billion in advertising revenue this year. The Motley Fool
Netflix’s own Q1 letter gives the market a narrow scorecard for July 16. The company forecast second-quarter revenue of $12.574 billion, operating income of $4.105 billion, operating margin of 32.6% and diluted earnings per share of 78 cents.
| Netflix metric | Q1 2026 actual | Q2 2026 company forecast | Change to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.250 bln | $12.574 bln | Higher sales, slower y/y growth |
| Operating income | $3.957 bln | $4.105 bln | Profit still rising |
| Operating margin | 32.3% | 32.6% | Margin held above 30% |
| Diluted EPS | $1.23 | $0.78 | Q1 included Warner Bros.-related fee |
The ad business is the cleaner read-through. Netflix said in April that its ad plan accounted for more than 60% of Q1 sign-ups in ad countries and that it worked with more than 4,000 advertisers, up 70% year over year. It also said ad revenue remained on track to roughly double to about $3 billion in 2026.
Netflix also gave investors a live-event case study. It said the World Baseball Classic drew 31.4 million viewers in Japan, became its most-watched program there and drove the country’s largest day of sign-ups.
The next test is whether one-off live events can keep lifting ad demand without forcing Netflix into the rights-cost arms race that investors tend to mark down. That is why July 13 matters before July 16.
Nasdaq U.S. equity and options markets will be closed on Friday, July 3, for the observed Independence Day holiday, according to Nasdaq Trader.
