NEW YORK, July 6, 2026, 15:06 (EDT)
- Palo Alto Networks, Inc. NASDAQ:PANW was up 1.5% to $353.43 as of 3:06 p.m. EDT, hitting a new 52-week high earlier at $368.17.
- Shares change hands at roughly 94 times the average 2026 EPS forecast and 73 times the 2028 number, going by MarketWatch/FactSet estimates and the latest price.
- The stock’s entry to the Tel Aviv index will kick off at just 25% of the intended 5% weighting, which tones down the first round of passive demand from local trackers.
Palo Alto Networks NASDAQ:PANW climbed Monday to a fresh record high. Investors are eyeing more than AI security growth here. Valuation vs. outlook is a factor, and the reported Israeli index flows might end up lighter in August than the headline number.
Nasdaq was open at the time. The exchange’s calendar lists July 3, 2026, as a closure for observed Independence Day. Standard trading hours for the Nasdaq Stock Market are 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.
The stock traded up 1.5% to $353.43 as of 3:06 p.m. EDT after ranging between $337.69 and $368.17. That swing was about 8.8% of Thursday’s close. MarketWatch put the year-to-date gain at 91.9%.
The rally has jumped ahead of what’s on the forecast sheet. TipRanks said Monday that William Blair’s Jonathan Ho is sticking with his Buy on Palo Alto. The average analyst rating holds at Strong Buy, average target $329.10. That’s about 7% under its 3:06 p.m. price.
| Forecast yardstick | Average EPS estimate | Implied multiple at $353.43 |
|---|---|---|
| Fiscal 2026 | $3.77 | 94x |
| Fiscal 2027 | $4.11 | 86x |
| Fiscal 2028 | $4.83 | 73x |
Palo Alto is sticking to a growth story, but it won’t come cheap. The company’s outlook for fiscal 2026 puts revenue at $11.415 billion to $11.425 billion. Non-GAAP EPS is seen in the $3.77 to $3.79 range, with an adjusted free cash flow margin of 37.5%.
With a current market cap of $283.67 billion, shares are trading at about 25 times the midpoint of the company’s fiscal 2026 revenue outlook. Using Palo Alto’s 37.5% adjusted free cash flow margin on that same revenue figure comes out to around $4.28 billion in adjusted free cash flow, which works out to roughly 66 times the non-GAAP cash flow target.
| Company forecast | Fiscal Q4 2026 | Fiscal 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Next-Gen Security ARR | $8.90 bln to $8.95 bln | $8.90 bln to $8.95 bln |
| Revenue | $3.345 bln to $3.355 bln | $11.415 bln to $11.425 bln |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.96 to $0.98 | $3.77 to $3.79 |
| Adjusted FCF margin | No outlook | 37.5% |
Palo Alto’s acquisition impact shows up in the numbers. For the April quarter, the company said CyberArk and Chronosphere brought in $388 million, about 13% of total revenue. Together, the two deals also added $1.6 billion to Next-Generation Security ARR, or nearly 20% of that figure.
Palo Alto CEO Nikesh Arora said customers are going to the company for help securing AI setups at scale. CFO Dipak Golechha told analysts integration from recent deals is ahead of schedule and Palo Alto is still looking at a 40% adjusted free cash flow margin for FY28.
Palo Alto is set to join the TA-35 and TA-125 after the Aug. 6 quarterly review, CTech said, but the Israel index effect is staged. TASE rules let new names in at 25% of target weight, with a move up to 50% at the following review and then full weight at the third. There’s a 5% cap in both indices.
| TASE forecast path | Headline target | Effective weight |
|---|---|---|
| Aug. 6 starts | 5.0% | 1.25% |
| November review due | 5.0% | 2.50% |
| Third weight move after entry | 5.0% | 5.00% |
This could be important since index flows tied to a 5% weight might show up ahead of time. CTech also reported the foreign stock cap for names from the same country is 8%, so Ormat Technologies, Inc. NYSE:ORA gets cut to a 3% cap from 4%.
Palo Alto’s next scheduled event is its fiscal Q4 earnings. MarketWatch and FactSet show the report is set for Aug. 24. Analysts on average see Q4 EPS coming in at 97 cents.
