NEW YORK, July 6, 2026, 19:05 EDT
- Credo jumped 9.8% to finish at $265.55, the top gain in the SOX rally.
- The stock hit an intraday high of $280.50, topping the average Wall Street target.
- EPS forecasts for FY2027 and FY2028 have jumped since April.
- Main risk in the numbers is still customer concentration.
Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd NASDAQ:CRDO jumped 9.8% to $265.55 on Monday, leading gains in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which added 2.2%. William Blair’s Sebastien Naji, who rates the stock at buy, said it’s his “highest conviction semiconductor stock for the next six months,” according to Investor’s Business Daily. CRDO has climbed about 85% this year. Investor’s Business Daily
CRDO finished the session at $265.55 on Nasdaq and traded at $266.01 after hours, according to WSJ/FactSet. That’s just below the average Street target at $280.14 and the median at $275. CRDO touched $280.50 during the day, a tick above the average target by 0.1%.
| Item | Forecast or market level | Read-through from $265.55 close |
|---|---|---|
| Average 12-month target | $280.14 | up 5.5% |
| Median 12-month target | $275.00 | up 3.6% |
| High target | $350.00 | up 31.8% |
| Low target | $215.00 | down 19.0% |
| Intraday high | $280.50 | just 0.1% above the average target |
| FY2027 EPS forecast | $6.10 | trades at 43.5 times close |
| FY2028 EPS forecast | $8.94 | trades at 29.7 times close |
| EPS forecast line | Latest | 1 month ago | 3 months ago | Change vs 3 months ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 | $1.16 | $1.16 | $1.05 | +10.5% |
| Q2 FY2027 | $1.24 | $1.23 | $1.12 | +10.7% |
| FY2027 | $6.10 | $6.05 | $4.71 | +29.5% |
| FY2028 | $8.94 | $8.65 | $5.82 | +53.6% |
That’s where investors are focused now. Shares have almost reached the target price, after profit estimates got a bump. To get another leg up, the stock needs more price target hikes or firmer signs that fiscal 2028 earnings are in play.
Credo’s numbers moved up sharply. Revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter jumped 157% to $437.0 million. Non-GAAP EPS hit $1.16. Cash and short-term investments finished at $1.4 billion. CEO Bill Brennan said fiscal 2026 revenue “more than tripled to $1.3 billion.” First-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue guidance is $465 million to $475 million. Credo Technology Group
| Company line | Q4 FY2026 actual | Q1 FY2027 forecast | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $437.0 million | $465 million-$475 million | Midpoint guides up 7.6% from last quarter |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 68.3% | 67.0%-69.0% | Midpoint at 68.0%, slightly lower than Q4 |
| Non-GAAP operating expenses | $81.7 million | $86 million-$90 million | Midpoint up 7.7% quarter over quarter |
Valuation is just one issue. In its 10-K, Credo said the top 10 customers made up about 90% of fiscal 2026 revenue, with two customers over 10% each. In the end-customer table, Customer D had 33%, Customer B had 32%, and Customer E took 19% of fiscal 2026 revenue. Those three unnamed customers together are 84% of the total.
On the June call, CFO Dan Fleming said Credo expects three to four customers to each make up over 10% of revenue in the coming quarters and for the full fiscal year. Fleming said the company sees mid-single digit growth in the first half of fiscal 2027, with growth set to accelerate in the back half. He pointed to over $600 million in optical revenue as a driver.
This matters since when a stock trades close to analyst targets, there’s less buffer for delays. If a big customer pushes back an order, it can hit the quarter. After the run-up, the next change to estimates could have more impact than old price targets.
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