New York, July 8, 2026, 12:06 EDT
- Alibaba shares in Hong Kong finished 12.21% higher at HK$107.50. The U.S.-listed ADR was up 10.81% to $108.75 in late morning New York trade.
- A July 7 HKEX filing showed a $49.99 million buyback on July 6 on the New York Stock Exchange, with the price per ADS at about $97.34.
- The chart moved above the 50-day average but is still below the 200-day. The 14-day RSI is almost 83, which shows the short-term is stretched.
- The investor playbook is the same: cloud and AI numbers are up quickly, but free cash flow and adjusted earnings took a big hit last quarter.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA; HKG:9988) is working off two sessions right now. Hong Kong is finished for the day, New York is still trading. Hong Kong shares closed at HK$107.50, up 12.21%, with 282.13 million shares traded, nearly triple the usual volume. The ADR was at $108.75 as of 11:46 a.m. ET, higher by $10.61 from the last close. The jump is big, but the ADR is still 44% from its 52-week high of $192.67.
This wasn’t just one name moving. The Hang Seng Index jumped 2.99% in Hong Kong, Hang Seng Tech surged 4.97%. The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (NYSEARCA:KWEB) gained 3.25% during New York hours. Kospi in South Korea dropped 5.35%. U.S. tech traded softer, Nasdaq was off about 1% at the same time.
| Market signal | Latest move | Read-through for Alibaba |
|---|---|---|
| Alibaba Hong Kong line | +12.21% to HK$107.50 | Got a wave of local cash, not just ADRs chasing futures |
| Alibaba ADR | +10.81% to $108.75 | U.S. traders were back for risk before the bell |
| Hang Seng Tech Index | +4.97% | Sector played catch-up, not only Alibaba headlines |
| KWEB | +3.25% | China internet names in the U.S. ran too |
| Kospi | -5.35% | Asia AI chip crowd got hit |
Saxo Markets strategist Charu Chanana said investors want a “different AI driver” and could be betting on a China story with a “lower-cost and efficiency-led path.” Nomura’s Jialong Shi told Dow Jones the market is starting to see Alibaba’s AI cloud value. For investors, it’s first a rotation play, then an Alibaba earnings play. MarketWatch
The U.S. legal risk overhang got a small lift. U.S. District Judge Eumi K. Lee told the Pentagon to pause treating Alibaba as a Chinese military company for lobbying limits while the court reviews the case, or for 60 days after the hearing. Alibaba stays on the Pentagon list, but it takes off immediate pressure on U.S. access and reputation.
Alibaba’s stronger signal came from its buyback. The company disclosed on July 7 that it bought 4,108,720 ordinary shares on the NYSE for cancellation the prior day, paying $49,993,158.75. One ADS is equal to eight shares, so this comes to about 513,590 ADS at around $97.34 each. The stock now trades almost 12% higher than that. The timing suggests Alibaba bought close to the bottom, but the buyback is small and won’t make much difference to the share count on its own. Total repurchases so far under the plan are 25,715,152 shares, or 0.13% of shares issued.
The chart for BABA looks better than it did last week, but it’s not clear yet. The stock is trading above its 50-day simple moving average at $97.67 and over the 100-day at $100.53. But it’s still under the 200-day simple moving average of $110.99. The 14-day RSI is high at 82.966, so the rally is stretched. For traders, $111 is key. Long-only investors are watching cash flow.
| Evidence | Bull case | Bear case |
|---|---|---|
| Price vs 50-day average | Momentum moved higher | RSI points to a hot tape |
| Price vs 200-day average | Shares are near a breakout | Long trend hasn’t changed direction |
| Buyback | Management stepped in near the bottom | Only 0.13% of shares is light |
| Cloud | Cloud revenue gained 38% for March | Margins have yet to show up |
| Quick commerce | Quick commerce revenue jumped 57% | Profit got hit by spend |
The March-quarter numbers show what’s at stake in this move. Revenue was up just 3% at RMB243.38 billion, or 11% if you strip out the units Alibaba sold. Cloud Intelligence Group revenue gained 38% to RMB41.63 billion. External cloud sales climbed 40%. AI-linked products brought in RMB8.97 billion. CEO Eddie Wu said AI spending has “moved from incubation to commercialization at scale.” CFO Toby Xu said quick-commerce saw “steadily improved” unit economics and average order value. That’s the bullish take.
Alibaba’s adjusted EBITA dropped 84% to RMB5.10 billion, with non-GAAP net income at just RMB86 million. Free cash flow ran a RMB17.30 billion outflow, pulled down by quick commerce, Qwen user adds, and more cloud infrastructure spend. Alibaba is paying for growth but giving up margin. The market still wants to see faster AI cloud gains and shrinking quick-commerce losses before signing off on the strategy.
My take: today’s bounce looks more like the market taking some pressure off Alibaba than anything new about its value. Investors had priced in heavy costs for AI, delivery deals, and U.S. politics. July’s buyback, a break from the court, and tech flows in Hong Kong eased that hit. But these don’t show the latest model is making enough yet.
This is why the next report needs to deliver operating leverage, not just more revenue. If cloud keeps up March-quarter growth and quick commerce burns less cash, the 200-day average could break. But if the cash drain stays, $110.99 acts as resistance, not a breakout.
