QXO stock’s $102 gap with TopBuild has put attention on the 312.5 million new shares on the market. New York, July 12, 2026, 14:05 (EDT)
QXO, Inc. NYSE:QXO jumped 2.8% to $14.99 in Friday’s session, but the late gain left most of the week’s earlier losses in place after four days of declines.
The stock dropped 7.5% since its July 2 pre-holiday close. On Friday, the payout to cash-electing former TopBuild holders — $249.67 and 10.212 QXO shares — came to about $402.75, which is roughly $102, or 20.2%, under the $505 cash reference for the deal. QXO put out about 312.5 million shares in the July 1 acquisition. Volume in the first full week after closing was 192.3 million shares, or 61.5% of the new shares.
The turnover figure doesn’t reveal who was selling or if 61.5% of merger shares swapped hands. But it points to a big change in who owns the stock. A $1 change in QXO shifts the cash-prorated merger payout by about $10.21 per old TopBuild share. That payout gets back to around $505 when QXO is close to $25.
| TopBuild consideration | Formula | Value at QXO’s $14.99 close | Shortfall from $505 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash option after proration | $249.67 plus 10.212 QXO shares | $402.75 | 20.2% |
| Stock only | 20.2 QXO shares | $302.80 | 40.0% |
The filing said the cash-election numbers are estimates and depend on what the exchange agent finalizes.
Some of the drop ties back to weakness in the sector. Builders FirstSource, Inc. NYSE:BLDR fell 10.6% from July 2 through Friday. Ferguson Enterprises Inc. NYSE:FERG shed 1.2%. The S&P 500 added 1.2% in that time. QXO trailed the market but did better than Builders FirstSource.
| Security | Five-session change |
|---|---|
| QXO | down 7.5% |
| Builders FirstSource | fell 10.6% |
| Ferguson Enterprises | slipped 1.2% |
| S&P 500 | up 1.2% |
QXO now runs three platforms in roofing, insulation installation, waterproofing and lumber. It’s putting combined revenue at about $18 billion with adjusted EBITDA close to $2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, less items QXO strips out. QXO is targeting $4 billion of adjusted EBITDA by 2030 if there are no more acquisitions, and $5.5 billion with smaller deals added. The company is telling investors to keep an eye on pricing, procurement, gross margin, free cash flow—which means cash after capex—and on deleveraging, or cutting debt versus earnings. QXO doesn’t see a near-term equity issue.
Brad Jacobs, who leads QXO as chairman and CEO, said TopBuild is “broadening our product offering, adding installation capabilities.” Jacobs also said, “By 2030, we expect to generate at least $300 million in annual synergies.” QXO expects most of that to come from purchasing, pricing and cross-selling. QXO, Inc.
RBC Capital Markets, a unit of Royal Bank of Canada NYSE:RY, on Friday kept its Outperform rating on QXO. The broker stuck with a $27 target, about 80% higher than where QXO finished. That leaves a big gap between where RBC thinks the stock can go and what investors are paying now.
The risk for QXO is clear. The company took on a $3 billion term loan and $3 billion in senior notes to pay for TopBuild, with the notes set at 6.5% and 6.875% interest. If gross-margin improvements or free cash come slower than hoped, QXO’s debt paydown could lag. More selling from bigger shareholders could weigh on the shares, even if construction demand holds up.
The biggest scheduled data point this week lands Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, as the U.S. Census Bureau puts out June numbers for building permits, housing starts and completions. The release won’t answer the QXO integration argument, but it could hint if homebuilding is becoming another hurdle while the market is trading merger shares.
QXO is juggling two challenges: taking in the extra shares from the deal and showing it can reach its projected earnings. The stock trades at $14.99, with the market mostly ignoring the past $505 level. Management has to deliver on margin gains and bring down debt faster to close the price gap.
