Sydney, July 14, 2026, 09:30 AEST
The ASX cash market sat in pre-open, with regular trading scheduled for just before 10:00 AEST.
BHP Group ASX:BHP has asked the Fair Work Commission to step in as it faces an eight-hour strike at Port Hedland on Thursday, just after the miner delivers its full-year production numbers. BHP says it’s held eight bargaining talks so far and put forward a pay rise of 4% a year over four years, plus some changes to allowances. Unions said the request to the tribunal is just a stalling move. Talks are set to restart Tuesday.
Thursday brings a split story for investors, with two financial years in play. BHP’s operational review — basically the yearly production rundown to June 30 — lands around 8:30 a.m. Melbourne time. The strike is set to kick off at 2 p.m. Western Australian time, which is 4 p.m. in Sydney, right as the regular ASX session ends. This won’t touch FY26 output, but could hit early FY27 shipments.
Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) produced 216 million tonnes in the first nine months on a 100% basis, counting output before partner deductions. That put BHP needing between 68 million and 80 million tonnes in the fourth quarter to hit its 284 million to 296 million-tonne guidance, with the midpoint target at 74 million tonnes. On copper, BHP ran tighter: output was 1.461 million tonnes by March, so it needed at least 489,000 tonnes in the last quarter to get to the upper half of its 1.9 million to 2 million-tonne guidance. That’s about 2.5% more than the third quarter.
| Thursday production test | Nine-month output | FY26 benchmark | Fourth-quarter requirement |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAIO, 100% basis | 216 Mt | 284–296 Mt | Needs 68–80 Mt in Q4, with the midpoint at 74 Mt |
| Group copper | 1.461 Mt | 1.9–2.0 Mt; tracking toward the upper half | Needs 489,000 tonnes for 1.95 Mt, or 539,000 tonnes for 2.0 Mt |
BHP shares haven’t seen a sharp, strike-driven selloff in the market. Since July 6, BHP is down 2.8%. That’s less than Rio Tinto ASX:RIO, which dropped 4.2%, and Fortescue ASX:FMG actually rose 1.3%. The S&P/ASX 200 edged down 0.3% in that time. Commodity moves and other company news also figured into the shifts, but BHP hasn’t taken the biggest hit among miners.
| Security | July 6 close | July 13 close | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group | A$60.02 | A$58.34 | -2.8% |
| Rio Tinto | A$171.17 | A$164.03 | -4.2% |
| Fortescue | A$18.52 | A$18.77 | +1.3% |
| S&P/ASX 200 | 8,831.0 | 8,808.5 | -0.3% |
Unions say around 150 to 200 port workers could join the strike. They put revenue risked over eight hours at A$40 million to A$50 million, though BHP says it has backup plans. That number refers to revenue, not profit, and it’s unclear how much cargo could still be shipped after.
BHP’s new chief executive Brandon Craig steps into his first operational review on Thursday after taking over from outgoing CEO Mike Henry on July 1. Henry previously said the company had hit “record production at WAIO” and guided for copper in “the upper half of FY26 Group copper guidance.” Investors will watch to see if Craig inherited that pace through June. BHP
Alexis Vassiley, a workplace-relations lecturer at Edith Cowan University, said: “If everyone was happy, they wouldn’t be unionising, and they wouldn’t be threatening to strike.” For shareholders, the main worry is precedent risk. A deal that moves pay or bargaining terms at other Pilbara sites could be more important than any one lost shift. afr.com
The risk on the downside is more escalation, not just a single eight-hour walkout. If the strike is contained, it could just delay cargo instead of cutting the amount moved. But if rolling bans or repeated strikes start, timing issues could turn into actual shipment and cost problems. On Thursday, any weak production numbers would show a miss that happened before the strike even started.
Market is focused on two simple hurdles. WAIO needs to show about 74 million tonnes and copper more than 489,000 tonnes for the quarter. After that, it’s about whether BHP can keep the Port Hedland dispute from turning into a constant FY27 cost.
