Sydney, July 16, 2026, 09:09 (AEST).
Macquarie Group ASX:MQG is set to start Thursday’s Australian session at a record high of A$258.16, trading 0.5% above the average analyst target and valuing the company at around A$99 billion. The Sydney cash market was in pre-open as of the dateline. Normal trading is expected just before 10 a.m. local time.
The shares already price in more than the slight earnings growth analysts are forecasting. Consensus for FY2027 EPS is A$13.21, just 4.3% up from the A$12.67 seen for FY2026 in this market-data set. The stock ended Wednesday at 19.5 times forward earnings, calculated by dividing the share price by expected annual EPS.
Energy is in focus right now. Brent closed at $84.95 on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs Group NYSE:GS said Gulf exports are now less than 50% of pre-war levels, or around 11 million barrels a day, and warns Brent could top $110 in the fourth quarter if recovery falters. Macquarie says big price moves can drive more client hedging and boost trading and inventory returns. “There seems to be a sense that we’ve seen this movie before,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, talking about the renewed fighting. Reuters
That exposure drove most of the operating-group profit growth in FY2026. Commodities and Global Markets, or CGM, posted A$4.221 billion in net profit contribution, up A$1.392 billion. That made up 53.1% of the total A$2.623 billion rise across Macquarie’s four divisions. Net profit contribution is Macquarie’s internal metric before unallocated corporate items, profit share and tax.
| Operating group | FY2025 contribution, A$m | FY2026 contribution, A$m | Increase, A$m | Share of increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macquarie Asset Management | 2,049 | 2,602 | 553 | 21.1% |
| Banking and Financial Services | 1,380 | 1,610 | 230 | 8.8% |
| Commodities and Global Markets | 2,829 | 4,221 | 1,392 | 53.1% |
| Macquarie Capital | 1,043 | 1,491 | 448 | 17.1% |
| Total | 7,301 | 9,924 | 2,623 | 100.0% |
CGM made up 42.5% of the four divisions’ FY2026 contribution, but accounted for over half of the gain. For investors, that sets it apart: Macquarie has multiple earnings drivers, but this latest jump was more focused than the headline number shows.
The price already bakes in a lot of the next commodities windfall. Analyst consensus is still at Overweight, but the stock finished above both the average and median price targets. Those targets now suggest a small drop ahead, not counting dividends.
| Market measure | Value | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| July 15 close | A$258.16 | New high, gained 2.02% |
| Average analyst target | A$256.78 | Closed 0.5% above target |
| Median analyst target | A$255.00 | Closed 1.2% above target |
| FY2027 EPS consensus | A$13.21 | Up 4.3% from FY2026 estimate |
| Implied FY2027 price-to-earnings ratio | 19.5 times | Share price over consensus earnings |
The FY2026 EPS in the market-data series is A$12.67. Macquarie posted EPS of A$12.77 in its results release. The 4.3% gap is based on the market-data series numbers.
Wednesday’s record didn’t come on strong volume. Just 657,578 shares changed hands, about 14% under the 65-day average, but still more than double Tuesday’s total. Macquarie is up nearly 38% since hitting a low of A$187.31 on November 19. The move seems like a steady rerating, not a sharp jump.
The other units added to the rerating. Asset management was up 27%. Banking and Financial Services climbed 17%, and Macquarie Capital jumped 43%. Deposits rose 25% to A$221.5 billion, widening the group’s funding base. These numbers ease but don’t eliminate the dependence on commodities for the next earnings beat.
The earnings base looks less solid. FY2026 CGM figures got a lift from selling the OnStream meters platform. CGM boss Simon Wright said in May, “while volatility is welcome prolonged volatility does tend to lead to more subdued client appetite.” Quick Gulf export recovery might hit hedging demand. A longer conflict risks pulling down client activity and the broader economy. Macquarie
Macquarie’s next big event is its annual meeting on July 23. The 2025 pay report got 25.4% of votes against, marking a first strike. If the 2026 pay report also sees at least 25% opposition, shareholders will face a spill resolution—a vote on whether to call a separate meeting on re-electing most non-executive directors. This fight over pay has no effect on current profit, but it puts the board on watch as the stock trades at all-time highs.
Investors now want to know if new Gulf turmoil can make up for last year’s one-off asset sales and bring steady client revenue instead. The record price is already baking in a case for that. The next key date for shareholders is the AGM, with the first set financial update coming at the half-year result on November 6.
