NEW YORK, July 16, 2026, 08:12 EDT
Opendoor Technologies Inc. NASDAQ:OPEN entered the third quarter with acquisition contracts rising 3% from the prior week while a key gauge of U.S. home-purchase loan demand fell 7%, a 10-percentage-point split that could test whether it can keep homes moving without giving up margin.
The readings are not like-for-like. Opendoor’s tracker counts contracts under which it expects to acquire a property, while the Mortgage Bankers Association survey tracks mortgage applications. Read together, they offer a rough view of homes entering Opendoor’s book against financed demand available to take them out.
The demand side weakened as the average contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.65%, its highest since August 2025. Purchase applications “dipped below last year’s pace” in the holiday-adjusted week ended July 10, Joel Kan, the association’s deputy chief economist, said. HousingWire
| Latest weekly signal | Period | Change from prior week |
|---|---|---|
| Opendoor acquisition contracts | Through July 11 | +3% |
| U.S. purchase mortgage applications | Week ended July 10, seasonally adjusted | -7% |
| Directional spread | Derived | 10 percentage points |
Simple difference; the indicators cover different stages of a housing transaction.
Shares were indicated at $4.75 before Thursday’s opening bell, about 4.2% above the previous close. The company said on July 14 it will report second-quarter results after the market closes on Aug. 4, giving investors a near-term check on whether the split is lasting or one noisy week.
Opendoor buys homes directly and resells them. Turn speed matters because unsold properties keep racking up taxes, insurance, utilities and maintenance. Its contribution margin, the share of revenue left after direct home costs, was 4.4% in the first quarter.
In that quarter, Opendoor bought 2,474 homes and sold 1,921, a 553-home excess. Inventory rose by the same number from the fourth quarter to 3,420 homes, while its stated value climbed 23% to $1.14 billion. This is the balance-sheet side of the contract growth.
| Operating measure | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Homes bought | 1,706 | 2,474 |
| Homes sold | 1,978 | 1,921 |
| Bought-to-sold ratio | 0.86x | 1.29x |
| Homes in inventory | 2,867 | 3,420 |
| Homes on market for more than 120 days | 33% | 10% |
Calculated from company data.
Yet inventory age improved. Homes listed for more than 120 days fell to 10% of inventory from 33%, even as units on hand rose 19%. “Better acquisitions, faster turns, stronger margins. The machine is working,” Chief Executive Kaz Nejatian said when the first-quarter figures were released in May. The latest flow data put that claim under a fresh test. Opendoor Technologies Inc.
Management has guided to roughly 25% sequential revenue growth for the second quarter, implying about $900 million from the first-quarter base. At the midpoint of its 5%-7% contribution-margin target, a simple calculation points to about $54 million of contribution profit, an estimate rather than company guidance and $22 million above the first quarter. Opendoor also aims for adjusted EBITDA near break-even, meaning roughly no profit or loss on its chosen operating measure.
But the weekly comparison may overstate the strain. The mortgage survey was adjusted for the July 4 holiday. Opendoor’s number spans several contract types and does not remove contracts later cancelled. Cash buyers and faster resale turns could soften the effect; price cuts could do so at the expense of margin.
The Aug. 4 report will show whether second-quarter sales caught up with purchases and whether aged inventory stayed low while the company chased a higher margin target. The July 11 tracker is already a third-quarter signal: Opendoor is pulling more homes into its pipeline just as financed buyer demand softened in the latest weekly reading.
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