MILPITAS, California, July 16, 2026, 05:08 (PDT)
Sandisk Corporation NASDAQ:SNDK dropped around $22.6 billion in market cap Wednesday, or about 3.6 times the part of its long-term order book that’s expected to turn into revenue in the coming year. Shares slid 8.1% to $1,615, putting the flash-memory company’s value at about $253.6 billion.
The comparison is core to the investment pitch. Sandisk had $41.6 billion in remaining performance obligations as of April 3—these are contracted sales that haven’t hit revenue yet. Just 15%, or $6.2 billion, should show up in the next year. The bulk of the protection is longer-term.
Memory stocks slid, not just Sandisk. Micron Technology NASDAQ:MU was down about 8% Wednesday, the Roundhill Memory ETF dropped around 7%, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index closed 16.5% off its June 22 high. “We are seeing fatigue in tech and doubts about the longer-term staying power of the chips,” TradeStation’s David Russell said. “We’ve priced in years of growth.” Investor’s Business Daily
| Sandisk scale comparison | Amount | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Wednesday wiped out market value | About $22.6 billion | That’s 3.6 times what’s contracted for the near term |
| Order book as of April 3, disclosed | $41.6 billion | Equals 16.4% of market value at present |
| Revenue from that, within 12 months | About $6.2 billion | That’s 15% of the disclosed order book |
| Evercore’s estimate for all five deals | About $62 billion | Works out to 24.5% of current market cap |
The $41.6 billion total comes from the first three customer contracts on file. Evercore puts the minimum at around $62 billion after including two newer deals, though Sandisk hasn’t disclosed how much those two are worth. The percentages shown use today’s market cap.
The timing matters now because Sandisk’s data-center base is much higher. Fiscal Q3 revenue hit $1.47 billion, which is up 233% from the previous quarter and 645% from the same period last year. Gross margin climbed to 78.4%. Just a small shift in flash pricing or customer types can swing earnings big. That kind of base is tough to top.
Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani lifted his Sandisk target to $3,100, projecting fiscal 2027 revenue at $47.8 billion and earnings of $212.78 per share. Daryanani is modeling more than a third of Sandisk’s 2027 memory volume on long-term contracts, with gross margins topping 80%. These are his own estimates, not official company guidance.
| Valuation bridge | Figure |
|---|---|
| Shares ended Wednesday at | $1,615 |
| Trailing P/E | 56.2 times |
| Evercore EPS forecast for fiscal 2027 | $212.78 |
| Multiple implied by that estimate | 7.6 times |
| Evercore price target | $3,100 |
| Upside from Wednesday’s close | About 92% |
The big spread in trailing and forward multiples shows the main debate on the stock. Bulls say earnings will climb, making today’s price cheap. Skeptics think the forward call is too aggressive if memory demand slows. The trailing multiple comes from market data, while Evercore’s model supplies the forward number.
There’s another gap in the contract numbers. Sandisk’s filing listed $511 million in contract liabilities as of April 3, mostly from customer advances. Evercore’s estimate, though, put guarantees and prepayments for all five deals at more than $11 billion. The two aren’t substitutes: the filing covers payments already on the books as liabilities; Evercore’s figure includes wider analyst-estimated financial protections.
CEO David Goeckeler says the new contracts aim to limit volatility in the business. “The bane of this industry has been the boom-bust cycle,” Goeckeler told Reuters in April. “We want to get out of that. We want consistent, predictable economics.” The deals set price floors and caps, and require payments from customers that don’t meet commitments. Reuters
But the deals bring risks, too. Sandisk said production shortfalls, bad yields, or supply-chain issues could mean lower prices or fewer shipments, possible damages, or end deals early. Customer guarantees may only offset part of lost sales, based on when a breach happens. Long-term contracts limit some demand risk, but don’t take away delivery or price risk.
Sellers stayed active ahead of Thursday’s U.S. session. Western Digital NASDAQ:WDC dropped 7.2% in premarket moves, Seagate Technology NASDAQ:STX slipped 5.8%. Nasdaq 100 futures were off 0.7% at 7:13 a.m. Eastern. The group kept trading like a crowded trade.
Sandisk is set to release fiscal Q4 numbers on August 5, with its investor day scheduled for August 13. The company has guided for revenue between $7.75 billion and $8.25 billion, and adjusted earnings at $30 to $33 per share. Investors want a new contract total, a firmer sense of the conversion timeline, and more detail on the $6 billion buyback usage. For now, the $41.6 billion order book is sizable, but how fast it turns into revenue is the key figure to watch.
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