NEW YORK, July 21, 2026, 08:12 EDT — New U.S. defense directives from former President Donald Trump have drawn attention to the preparedness gap between MP Materials NYSE:MP and other rare-earth suppliers.
- MP Materials gained 1.0% on Monday. USA Rare Earth NASDAQ:USAR slipped 2.7%, and Critical Metals NASDAQ:CRML dropped 3.0%.
- Stricter defense material waiver regulations take effect from January 1, 2027. The Pentagon’s supply-chain mapping policy is expected within 180 days.
- NYSE’s core trading did not open. The standard trading session begins at 09:30 EDT.
MP Materials NYSE:MP ended Monday up 1.0% as President Donald Trump completed the signing of the order. USA Rare Earth NASDAQ:USAR declined 2.7%. Critical Metals NASDAQ:CRML slipped 3.0%. The 3.7-point difference between MP and USAR is seen as the most evident initial indicator.
The order limits waiver eligibility starting January 1, 2027. Contractors are required to track materials, demonstrate efforts to find alternatives, and finance mitigation strategies. The Pentagon is tasked to create a supply-chain mapping policy within 180 days.
The market indicator is more selective than a general mining incentive. Output that meets requirements, support from the federal government, and downstream infrastructure may secure higher prices. Initial-stage deposits continue to be exposed to evaluation and funding uncertainties.
The differentiation came after a volatile week, with each of the three stocks dropping by double digits between July 10 and July 17. The data below reflects closing prices.
| Company | July 20 close | Monday move | July 10–17 | Policy position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP Materials NYSE:MP | $45.70 | up 1.0% | down 13.4% | Runs U.S. mine; holds Pentagon deals and supply agreements |
| USA Rare Earth NASDAQ:USAR | $15.23 | down 2.7% | down 15.3% | Integrated operation; agreed to Serra Verde tie-up |
| Critical Metals NASDAQ:CRML | $6.21 | down 3.0% | down 19.5% | Stake in Greenland rare-earth resource |
The latest projection from the IEA helps account for part of the downturn. Projects beyond the top producer may yield close to 50,000 tonnes by 2035. Proposed output for metals, alloys and magnets is around 18,000 tonnes.
William Blair analyst Neal Dingmann attributed the situation to “investor market risk-off behavior, hedge funds exiting the space, and various imprecise information.” Dingmann maintained his bullish stance on downstream producers in light of the IEA outlook. Investor’s Business Daily
MP currently runs Mountain Pass and is bringing its magnet facility in Texas online. The Pentagon deal sets a price floor for NdPr at $110 per kilogram and features a decade-long commitment to buy magnets. The government’s stake in the investment is roughly 15% of MP.
USA Rare Earth also pursues mine-to-magnet integration, though further progress is needed. Its merger with Serra Verde, which has been agreed, would provide access to Brazilian feedstock at commercial scale. The project’s growth is backed by a $565 million U.S. development finance loan.
The measure is not limited solely to the United States. It covers critical-mineral acquisitions from overseas projects backed by U.S. agencies. This aspect could allow Serra Verde to qualify.
Expenses could appear later. On Tuesday, Northrop Grumman NYSE:NOC increased its 2026 outlook. However, operating income from defense systems dropped by 38%. The company pointed to spending on weapons development and qualification as the reason.
The recent order was not responsible for the decrease. However, it highlights a reason why major contractors might push back against rapid qualification requirements. Ensuring supply security has the potential to compress margins ahead of increasing production.
“It is battlefield preparation,” said White House trade adviser Peter Navarro. “If a missile system depends on a foreign-controlled supplier, the Department of War needs to know before the shooting starts.” Bloomberg Government
NYSE core trading was yet to start as of 08:12 EDT. The main session opens at 09:30 EDT. All figures in this report reference Monday’s closing levels.
RTX NYSE:RTX and Lockheed Martin NYSE:LMT are set to release their reports on Thursday. Boeing NYSE:BA is scheduled to report on July 28. Market participants are focused on qualification expenses, supplier transparency, and procurement schedules.
Risks: The Pentagon has yet to specify which acquisitions are included and must release regulations. Waivers can still be granted if approved mitigation plans are provided. Additional mine production might weigh on rare-earth prices.
