NEW YORK, July 22, 2026, 7:03 a.m. EDT — U.S. premarket trade
- Preliminary indication: GE Vernova shares fell about 4.5% near $1,030.
- Quarterly orders jumped 88% organically to $24.2 billion. Backlog reached $176.3 billion.
- First-half free cash flow reached $9.9 billion, aided by $13.7 billion of contract-liability inflows.
GE Vernova NYSE:GEV lifted its 2026 free-cash-flow outlook by $5 billion at the midpoint on Wednesday. Its shares still fell about 4.5% in preliminary premarket trade, reversing an earlier gain.
The reaction put the source of cash, not demand, at center stage. First-half free cash flow was $9.9 billion, or 82% of the new full-year midpoint.
Yet contract-liability inflows reached $13.7 billion. That exceeded GE Vernova’s entire $10.7 billion of operating cash flow.
Those inflows came mainly from customer down payments and turbine slot reservations. They finance future work, but do not represent current-period profit. Conversion now matters more.
Demand itself remained powerful. Second-quarter revenue rose 22% to $11.1 billion. Backlog increased by $13 billion sequentially.
| Metric | Current result | Comparison | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Second-quarter orders | $24.2 billion | $12.4 billion a year earlier | +88% organic |
| Backlog | $176.3 billion | $163.3 billion in March | +$13.0 billion |
| First-half free cash flow | $9.9 billion | $12.0 billion 2026 midpoint | 82% delivered |
| Contract-liability inflow | $13.7 billion | $10.7 billion operating cash flow | 128% of cash flow |
Calculations use reported company figures and rounded midpoints.
Management raised its revenue forecast to $45.5-$46.5 billion. It kept the adjusted EBITDA margin range unchanged at 12%-14%.
That split suggests the cash upgrade reflects working-capital timing more than an equivalent profit reset. The prior free-cash-flow range was $6.5-$7.5 billion.
“Our momentum is building,” CEO Scott Strazik said. GE Vernova expects at least 125 gigawatts of gas equipment under contract by year-end.
Annual turbine output should reach 20 GW this quarter. Management targets 24 GW in 2028 and 30 GW in 2030.
The backlog now equals 3.8 times the new revenue midpoint. Company schedules imply about $45.8 billion of RPO recognition within one year.
That figure nearly matches annual guidance. It highlights the importance of factories, suppliers and delivery schedules.
Power produced the strongest order surge. Orders rose 134% organically to $16.7 billion, while its EBITDA margin reached 18.8%.
Electrification’s margin widened to 18.4%. Wind lost $275 million, against a $165 million loss one year earlier.
The quarter was not flawless. Sales topped the roughly $10.8 billion Wall Street estimate.
Adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion slightly trailed expectations near $1.3 billion. The shortfall mattered after the stock’s steep advance this year.
Valuation remains demanding, though the peer gap is narrower after Wednesday’s reversal. Using estimates cited in the linked valuation report, GEV’s preliminary price implies about 42 times 2027 earnings.
Quanta Services NYSE:PWR trades near 39 times using the same method. That leaves a multiple premium of roughly 9% for GE Vernova.
Pre-call expectations were already high. Kalshi traders assigned a 97% probability that management would say “data center.”
The earnings release went further. Data-center orders exceeded $5 billion year-to-date, more than twice the full-year 2025 total.
Risks: Wind is expected to lose about $400 million this year. Tariffs may add $100 million to $200 million of costs, while the customer-advance boost may not recur.
The 7:30 a.m. earnings call will test pricing, capacity and cash normalization. More orders alone may no longer be enough.
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