NEW YORK, July 22, 2026, 08:16 EDT
- U.S. cash markets remained closed. AAL was quoted at $15.16, a decline of 0.8%, as of 07:59 EDT.
- Q2 projections show earnings of $0.03 to $0.05 per share, with revenue estimated at around $16.7 billion.
- Initial estimates suggest American requires $0.70 to $0.72 in second-half adjusted earnings per share.
American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL could post around $2.3 billion in revenue for the June quarter. Current EPS forecasts point to a year-on-year decline of between 95% and 97%.
The divergence will be the key focus for investors on Thursday. American forecasts a Q2 outcome between a 20-cent loss and a 20-cent gain. Consensus estimates are approximately at the midpoint of this range.
Initial estimates translate to a profit of just $20 million to $33 million, which represents 0.12% to 0.20% of projected sales. A negative move of 20 basis points would eliminate the upper range.
| June quarter | Revenue | EPS | Profit measure |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 actual | $14.39 billion | $0.95 adjusted | $628 million adjusted |
| 2026 estimate* | $16.70 billion | $0.03–$0.05 | $20–$33 million implied |
| Year-on-year change | +$2.31 billion / +16% | falls 95%–97% | declines 95%–97% |
Preliminary. The 2026 earnings projection is based on published EPS estimates and 661.2 million Q1 weighted shares. Actual diluted share count could vary. Numbers are approximate.
The table illustrates the earnings gap. Forecasts for record sales indicate a profit margin close to zero. Based on the midpoint of annual guidance, the second half is expected to account for the majority of yearly results.
American reported a first-quarter adjusted loss of 40 cents. The midpoint of its full-year guidance stands at 35 cents. An initial calculation indicates 70 to 72 cents is allocated for the second half.
This amounts to approximately $463 million to $476 million based on Q1 share counts. The obligation is nearly double American’s projected 2025 adjusted net income.
Fuel is a weak point for that bridge. As of March 31, American did not have any fuel hedges in place. Each one-cent rise in fuel price would increase yearly costs by about $45 million.
As a result, ten cents translates to roughly $450 million per year. This amount is close to the profit target for the second half. This figure is an indicator, not a prediction.
Revenue continues to offset other pressures. American projected Q2 growth between 13.5% and 16.5%, with capacity up 4% to 6%. These midpoint figures suggest unit revenue growth of around 9.5%. In April, CEO Robert Isom stated the airline was “on track for another record.” American Airlines Newsroom
United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:UAL posted adjusted net income of $649 million and revenue totalling $17.7 billion. The company recouped roughly half of its rise in fuel costs and aims to recover between 80% and 90% in the third quarter.
Delta Air Lines Inc. NYSE:DAL reported adjusted net income totaling $1.03 billion. Adjusted revenue reached $17.7 billion, while the company recorded an operating margin of 8.8%.
Alaska Air Group Inc. NYSE:ALK issued another warning on Tuesday. The carrier managed to recoup only a small portion of its Q2 fuel cost surge and anticipates recouping around half in Q3. Its Q3 earnings per share guidance midpoint is 50 cents, while analysts’ consensus stood at $1.38. The spot price for U.S. jet fuel was $3.59 per gallon.
Alaska’s finance vice president, Ryan St. John, said, “It’s really hard to know where fuel is going to settle in the fourth quarter.” Reuters
American dropped 11.6% over the past full week. United was down 8.4%, and Delta slid 3.7%. American ended Tuesday at $15.28 before dipping 0.8% in premarket trading to $15.16.
This week, attention turns to Thursday’s premarket update, the primary event on the agenda. The call begins at 7:30 a.m. Central time. Market participants are set to watch for Q3 fuel outlook, recapture rates and trends in non-fuel unit costs.
Risks: Another surge in fuel prices could offset improvements in fares. Weaker demand, increased non-fuel expenses and end-of-March debt standing at $34.7 billion allow limited margin for mistakes.
Even a record sales figure might fall short. The stock requires a solid roadmap to achieve about 70 cents per share in EPS for the second half.
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