NEW YORK, July 6, 2026, 09:08 (EDT)
- Tesla was up 1.13% to $397.90 in premarket trading after dropping 7.49% at the close.
- Tesla’s Q2 deliveries came in 28,368 cars above its Q2 output, suggesting an inventory dip worth 6.3% of what it produced.
- Nasdaq says July 3 will be a full market holiday for Independence Day. Regular trading hours Monday are 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA traded higher before the bell Monday but recovered just 14% of Friday’s slide. The stock had sold off after record deliveries failed to hold buyers.
The stock was not dealing with a soft market. At 07:24 a.m. ET, Reuters put Dow futures down 0.04%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.44% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.1%. Chip names traded higher after the holiday-shortened week. “This week, investors will continue to question technology valuations,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank. Reuters
| Measure | Latest read | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla premarket | $397.90, +1.13% | Shares up $4.45 before the bell |
| Tesla last close | $393.45, -7.49% | Lost $31.85 on July 2 |
| Tesla 5-day move | +3.62% | Remains in the green for the week |
| Tesla YTD move | -12.51% | Still off for 2026 |
Tesla’s July 2 update had eyes on the 480,126 delivery count, but the bigger surprise was the delivery-production gap. The company delivered 28,368 more cars than it made last quarter, most of it Model 3/Y. That signals Tesla dipped into inventory, not just cranked up production.
| Q2 category | Production | Deliveries | Deliveries minus production | Gap / production |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 3/Y | 442,936 | 467,762 | 24,826 more | 5.6% higher |
| Other models | 8,822 | 12,364 | 3,542 more | 40.1% higher |
| Total | 451,758 | 480,126 | 28,368 more | 6.3% higher |
That’s important since Tesla stock trades on growth. Now, any outperformance needs to show up in earnings, price, margins, or higher output. Delivery beats only support the income line if they don’t rely too much on price cuts, trade-in deals, or low-margin models.
Tesla’s internal sell-side consensus put Q2 deliveries at 406,024 and energy storage at 13.8 GWh. The automaker came in 18.3% above the vehicle estimate but logged storage deployments of 13.5 GWh, missing that line by 0.3 GWh.
Gary Black, The Future Fund’s managing director, posted on X that Tesla shares could bounce this week as analysts boost Q2 and 2026 earnings forecasts. But Black called Tesla “fully priced,” pointing to a high multiple on 2026 earnings and argued the recent EV demand was probably due to rising gas prices, not self-driving buzz. Stocktwits
Morningstar, Inc. NASDAQ:MORN analyst Seth Goldstein boosted his Tesla fair value estimate to $450 from $425 following the latest delivery numbers, which he said came in about 20% above consensus. Goldstein wrote he was surprised by the July 2 selloff but still sees the shares as fairly valued and tells investors to wait for a bigger margin of safety.
Ross Gerber at Gerber Kawasaki went the other way in the quality debate. “Market had a negative reaction to good Tesla sales numbers,” he posted on X, quoted by Benzinga. He pointed to lower gas prices bringing “less demand” and said Tesla “make just 3 models.” Benzinga
Tesla dropped another autonomy headline for traders during the long weekend. Reuters wrote that Tesla now says its robotaxi is live in Miami, after starting unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin back in June and planning Dallas and Houston next. Waymo from Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ:GOOGL and Amazon.com, Inc.’s NASDAQ:AMZN Zoox are also in the robotaxi race.
Tesla’s Miami launch was limited, Investor’s Business Daily said. The report noted the geofenced zone included sections of West Miami, part of Coral Gables and Sweetwater. It left out downtown, the airport and Miami Beach.
Tesla will post its Q2 numbers after markets close on July 22 and will hold a webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET. The market focus is on whether the company’s delivery beat of 28,368 vehicles actually drove healthy margins or just moved more old inventory.
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