NEW YORK, July 23, 2026, 16:06 EDT
- U.S. markets are shut. MARA closed at $12.77, gaining 2.9%.
- The stock rose 11.8% over five sessions, compared to a peer median of 21.6%.
- On Thursday, Bernstein maintained a Hold rating for MARA and a Buy rating for Riot.
MARA gained even as Bitcoin and the wider tech sector declined. The Nasdaq dropped over 2%, and Bitcoin was down roughly 2%.
The gap is significant. MARA rose 11.8% across five U.S. trading days, while Bitcoin increased by just 1.5% in that period.
However, MARA achieved slightly more than half of the median gain seen across three comparable peers. The 9.7 percentage point difference offers a clearer signal to investors.
| Company or asset | July 23 close | Change since July 16 | Latest disclosed AI or HPC proof |
|---|---|---|---|
| MARA Holdings NASDAQ:MARA | $12.77 | +11.8% | Plans for up to 2 GW by April 2028; tenant demand signaled, but a finalized lease has not been announced. |
| Riot Platforms NASDAQ:RIOT | $23.86 | +26.8% | 50 MW deal in place with Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD. |
| CleanSpark NASDAQ:CLSK | $15.68 | +21.6% | Signed a twenty-year lease; CleanSpark forecasts $6.6 billion in contracted revenue. |
| IREN Limited NASDAQ:IREN | $40.50 | +16.3% | Announced $2.8 billion in recent deals; about 85% of IREN’s AI-cloud ARR goal above $4 billion has agreements in place. |
| Bitcoin | $64,810 | +1.5% | Not applicable. |
Share returns are calculated based on closing prices from July 16 and July 23. CleanSpark’s reported revenue is a projected value. The annualized run-rate target for IREN is forward-looking and based on non-GAAP measures.
The analysis indicates a targeted rerating. Investors placed value on grid access, while assigning higher premiums to confirmed revenue.
On Thursday, Bernstein reiterated the differentiation. Analyst Gautam Chhugani maintained a Hold rating on MARA and assigned a $17 price target. Riot was kept at Buy with a $30 target.
According to Bernstein’s tracker, over 7.5 gigawatts in AI agreements connected to miners have been recorded. The report estimated the value of their multiple-year contracts at more than $150 billion. All identified miners were rated outperform except for MARA.
MARA’s Texas deal aims for as much as 2 gigawatts by April 2028. The announcement mentioned tenant demand but no finalized leases. Progress is contingent on regulatory consent.
Chief Executive Fred Thiel said locations offering steady power supply would be “increasingly valuable.” This week’s pricing trends align with that perspective. Not every pipeline received the same valuation. MARA
Long Ridge provides interim support as MARA looks for occupants. The 505-megawatt facility delivers approximately $144 million in yearly adjusted earnings. Thiel described it as an “ideal data center campus.” The $1.5 billion transaction awaits regulatory clearance. Reuters
MARA is set to announce second-quarter earnings prior to its August 6 conference call, which starts at 5 p.m. EDT. Investors are expected to focus on tenant conversion, terms of financing, and the schedule for buildout.
The Federal Reserve is set to meet on July 28-29. Anticipation of higher rates could weigh on Bitcoin along with data-center stocks that require significant capital.
Risks: Bitcoin’s volatility continues. MARA needs to shut down Long Ridge, attract customers, and obtain financing for construction. Any delay could undo the recent rerating.
MARA is not solely functioning as a Bitcoin proxy anymore. Additional rerating is likely contingent on secured AI revenue.
Related articles: NASDAQ:MARA
