NEW YORK, July 27, 2026, 07:06 EDT — U.S. premarket trade.
- Cleveland-Cliffs closed Friday at $11.93, up 8.9% on the session and 28.6% for the week.
- Shipments declined by 2.0% in the second quarter as average steel prices increased 7.3%.
- The company forecast third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of approximately $575 million, representing a doubling from the second quarter.
Cleveland-Cliffs finished Friday’s session at $11.93, up 28.6% for the week. The surge came after the company projected about $575 million in adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter.
Investor focus is on operating leverage rather than shipment volume. Shipments declined by 2.0%, but the average selling price increased by 7.3%.
Consolidated revenue rose by $304 million compared to the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA climbed by $191 million. Effectively, 63% of the additional revenue was reflected in adjusted EBITDA.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Sequential change | Q3 guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated revenue | $4.922 billion | $5.226 billion | up 6.2% | — |
| Steel shipments | 4.108 million tons | 4.025 million tons | down 2.0% | — |
| Average steel price | $1,048 per ton | $1,124 per ton | increased 7.3% | — |
| Steel cash margin | $136 million | $349 million | jumped 156.6% | — |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $95 million | $286 million | rose 201.1% | About $575 million |
Sequential variations are based on company data. The Q3 number reflects company projections.
The pricing gap is notably narrow. Factoring in the $76-per-ton rise for second-quarter shipments results in roughly $306 million.
Steelmaking sales increased by $295 million. The close correspondence indicates that pricing and mix accounted for nearly all the quarter-over-quarter gains.
Chief Executive Lourenco Goncalves stated, “Q3 adjusted EBITDA is expected to more than double Q2.” He anticipates fourth-quarter EBITDA will surpass the outlook projected for the third quarter. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
This is not a story about increasing volume. Cliffs maintained its outlook for full-year shipments at 16.5 million to 17 million tons. Expected capital expenditures were held steady at around $700 million.
Cash flow performance strengthened. Operating cash flow reached $230 million, surpassing capital expenditures by $73 million.
The balance sheet remains significant. Long-term debt was $7.70 billion, while cash totaled $70 million. Net interest expense for the quarter came in at $156 million.
Management projects leverage to decline to under 2.5 times debt-to-EBITDA around mid-2027. This target hinges on the anticipated earnings rebound translating into cash flow.
The rally has reduced the valuation difference as well. Analysts’ average price target stands at $12.10, just 1.4% higher than Friday’s closing price. The median forecast is $11.50, and the consensus recommendation is Hold.
GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson upgraded Cliffs to Buy on Friday and increased his price target to $15.60, up from $15.01. Johnson said contract lags are expected to “do the heavy lifting from here.” GLJ Research
Steel Dynamics Inc. NASDAQ:STLD offered a clearer picture on volume, posting record second-quarter shipments at 3.7 million tons and adjusted EBITDA of $921 million. CEO Mark Millett stated steel prices “continued to improve.” PR Newswire
Nucor Corp. NYSE:NUE will post results after the market closes on Monday. The company projects adjusted earnings between $4.50 and $4.60 per share, up from $3.23 in the first quarter. Nucor attributed the outlook to increased selling prices and steady volume.
There were no new trade policy developments providing further momentum for steel last week. According to Reuters, recently imposed forced-labor tariffs do not apply to steel currently subject to Section 232. As a result, contract repricing continues to be the primary factor influencing upcoming earnings.
Risks include a potential downturn in steel prices, weaker automotive demand, and elevated debt restricting flexibility. Missing volume or cost targets could hinder Cliffs’ deleveraging plan.
Following a 29% weekly rise, expectations are elevated. Cliffs must now achieve the EBITDA increase and translate it into lower debt.
