
Nucor Corporation saw its value drop by around $5.74 billion last week. Investors had anticipated reduced steel tariffs as part of a U.S.-Canada deal, but negotiations later broke down.
First: investors expected a U.S.–Canada deal to reduce 50% steel tariffs. That protection is valuable to domestic mills, so Nucor and Steel Dynamics sold off.
Now: talks have collapsed. The U.S. barrier remains, creating rebound potential Monday. Canada’s matching tariffs, including steel, cap the upside.
U.S. protection: positiveCanada retaliation: negativeMonday gap: key signal| Q2 2026 | Result | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | $10.40B | +23% YoY |
| Adjusted EPS | $4.84 | $2.60 prior year |
| EBITDA | $2.02B | $1.30B prior year |
| Mill shipments | 7.06M tons | +9% YoY |
| Cash + short-term investments | $2.69B | Quarter-end |
| Firm | View | Target | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | $297 | 21.9% |
| BMO Capital | Buy | $295 | 21.1% |
| Barclays | Overweight | $295 | 21.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal-weight | $270 | 10.8% |
| UBS | Neutral | $256 | 5.1% |
A strong Monday gap with heavy volume would show that the market is restoring Nucor’s tariff premium. The move can fade if Canada’s detailed steel list hits U.S. exports broadly. A revived negotiation would also put tariff-relief risk back into the stock.
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