NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 17:13 ET
- Internal documents reviewed by Reuters show Meta built a “playbook” to delay tougher rules on scam ads. Reuters
- Meta shares rose on Dec. 30 after the company said it would acquire AI startup Manus, lifting focus on its 2026 AI roadmap.
- Meta has said 2026 capital spending growth will be “notably larger” than in 2025, keeping returns on AI investment central to the 2026 stock debate. investor.atmeta.com
Meta Platforms is heading into 2026 with fresh questions over how it polices scam advertising, after internal documents reviewed by Reuters showed the company developed a “playbook” to stall regulators. Reuters
That matters now because Meta’s stock outlook for 2026 rests on two linked forces: how much cash it can keep generating from ads, and how much it must spend — or be forced to spend — to keep regulators and users onside.
The debate has sharpened as investors also press Big Tech to show that heavy artificial-intelligence spending translates into revenue and profit, not just larger data centers and higher depreciation.
Meta shares were last at about $660, down roughly 0.9% from the prior close, giving the Facebook and Instagram owner a market value of about $1.85 trillion.
On Dec. 30, Meta rose 1.1% after it said it would acquire Chinese-founded artificial intelligence startup Manus, accelerating efforts to integrate advanced AI across its platforms.
Meta has already signaled that 2026 will bring a step-up in spending. In its latest quarterly update, the company said it expects capital expenditure dollar growth to be “notably larger” in 2026 than in 2025 and that total expenses will grow faster, driven mainly by infrastructure costs. investor.atmeta.com
The Reuters investigation said Meta’s “playbook” included tactics to reduce the “discoverability” of scam ads in its Ad Library — a public database meant to let users search ads on Facebook and Instagram — as regulators used keyword searches to gauge the scale of fraud. The documents also showed Meta resisted “universal advertiser verification,” meaning identity checks for all advertisers before ads can run, citing internal estimates of about $2 billion in costs and potential revenue loss from blocking unverified advertisers; one internal analysis calculated exposure from possible European and British rules at up to $9.3 billion. Meta spokesperson Andy Stone said verification is “not a silver bullet” and said the company has seen a 50% drop in user reports of scams over the past year. Reuters
The same documents pointed to a competitive gap on ad verification: Google announced it would gradually adopt universal verification and has said it has verified more than 90% of advertisers.
Investors are also watching the wider mood around AI-linked valuations. Dennis Follmer, chief investment officer at Montis Financial, said this week that AI-related stocks look like a bubble, but he expects any unwind to be more of a deflation than a repeat of the dot-com crash.
For Meta in 2026, that translates into a narrower set of questions: whether AI tools improve ad performance quickly enough to justify higher spending, and whether new compliance demands raise costs or slow ad growth in key markets.
The regulatory angle is harder to model. The Reuters investigation said European authorities have asked Meta for details about its handling of scam ads, and the company’s internal documents show it treated scams as a top-tier regulatory and reputational risk.
Meta’s 2026 stock forecast, in other words, may turn less on headline user metrics and more on execution: keeping ad engines running while proving that AI spending and tougher anti-scam measures can coexist without squeezing margins.
