Copenhagen-listed shares declined roughly 7%, while U.S.-traded shares lost 9.0% with both exchanges open.
ZEUS achieved a cardiovascular-event hazard ratio of 0.99. Analysts had previously considered 0.85 as the lowest acceptable outcome.
Adjusted sales for the first quarter were 94.0% driven by obesity and diabetes. The company will release first-half results on August 5.
Shares of Novo Nordisk A/S (CPH:NOVO-B; NYSE:NVO) dropped significantly on Friday after the ZEUS trial found minimal cardiovascular benefit from ziltivekimab. The decline in U.S. trading wiped out approximately $20.5 billion in market capitalisation.
The loss amounted to around 28 times Corvidia’s $725 million acquisition cost. Novo acquired Corvidia in 2020 to obtain ziltivekimab. The disparity highlights a wider reassessment of pipeline valuations.
Copenhagen-listed shares hovered around DKK308, declining approximately 7% in late afternoon trade. U.S. depositary receipts, or ADRs, dropped 9.0% to $46.96. Regular trading for both markets was still underway.
Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLV)
$161.79
-1.1%
Prices as of around 09:55 EDT. Percentage movements reflect changes from the prior closing values.
Novo underperformed Lilly by 7.5 percentage points. Compared to the sector fund, Novo lagged by around 8.0 points. The shift was driven primarily by company-specific factors.
ZEUS included over 6,300 participants diagnosed with cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and inflammation. The study assessed major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), comprising death, heart attack, and stroke. The primary hazard ratio reached 0.99.
ZEUS measure
Trial result
Comparator
Reading
MACE hazard ratio
0.99
0.85 analyst threshold
Below target
Approximate hazard reduction
1%
At least 15%
Short by 14 points
95% confidence interval
0.88–1.11
1.00 means no difference
Encompassed no effect
Serious infections
Higher
Placebo group
Negative difference
Analysts viewed the 15% level as the lowest point considered commercially and regulatorily practical.
Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange stated the biological impact “did not result in MACE benefits.” Ziltivekimab was linked to a higher rate of serious infections. Total rates of serious adverse events were similar otherwise. novonordisk.com
The setback is significant as Novo still relies heavily on a narrow range of products. During the first quarter, obesity and diabetes accounted for 94.0% of its adjusted sales, while rare disease contributed just 6.0%.
Q1 2026 adjusted sales
DKK billion
Share of total
Obesity therapies
20.912
29.8%
Diabetes treatments
44.936
64.1%
Rare disease segment
4.215
6.0%
Total
70.063
100.0%
Percentages reflect Novo’s adjusted sales as reported.
The combination raises the importance of assets not tied to obesity or diabetes. ZEUS gave a monthly anti-inflammatory path into wider cardiovascular treatment. The share decline seems to reflect the loss of a diversification opportunity.
Novo stated that ZEUS will not affect its adjusted profit forecast for 2026. The company will take a non-cash impairment in the third quarter. Its existing outlook anticipates adjusted operating profit will decline by 4% to 12% in constant currencies.
Preliminary valuation calculation
Amount
Present market value
$207.0 billion
Implied valuation before drop on Friday
$227.5 billion
Estimated loss in value
$20.5 billion
Corvidia buyout cost
$725 million
Loss in value relative to buyout price
Roughly 28 times
The market valuation numbers are early intraday calculations. These are based on an unchanged share count and the ADR’s last closing price of $51.61.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. NYSE:JPM analysts stated that ZEUS “removes a potential multibillion-dollar asset” from Novo’s development prospects. This view is reflected in the company’s market performance. The scale of the loss surpassed the upfront cash paid in the deal. Reuters
Risks are still present on both sides. Complete ZEUS results could reveal beneficial patient subgroups. However, the infection result has the potential to pose challenges for future progress. HERMES and ARTEMIS are still in progress, with findings anticipated in the first half of 2027.
Novo’s next major update is on August 5, when it releases results for the first half. Investors will focus on Wegovy shipment figures, U.S. net pricing, and the outlook range. Following the setback with ZEUS, performance in the main business takes on greater importance for valuation.
At 14:05 UTC, NVO shares were at $46.72, falling 9.5% on the day. The ZEUS trial reported a hazard ratio of 0.99 compared to placebo, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.88 to 1.11, showing no reduction in cardiovascular events. novonordisk.com The outcome cuts into pipeline value, though adjusted profit guidance for 2026 is maintained. Novo also anticipates a non-cash impairment charge in the third quarter. novonordisk.com
What do the most recent results and outlook for 2026 indicate?
First-quarter adjusted sales reached DKK70.1bn, a decrease of 4% at constant exchange rates. Adjusted operating profit was DKK32.9bn, falling 6% on the same metric. Reported sales rose 32%, primarily boosted by a non-cash DKK26.8bn 340B reversal. SEC Management forecasts full-year reductions in adjusted sales and operating profit ranging from 4% to 12%, with the midpoint suggesting an 8% drop. SEC
Could the Wegovy pill help ease pricing strain and balance Ozempic softness?
Q1 obesity-care revenue climbed 22% at constant exchange rates to DKK20.9bn. The Wegovy pill contributed DKK2.26bn, with weekly prescriptions topping 200,000 as of April 17. Total prescriptions surpassed two million, though Q1 revenue was boosted by pre-launch channel stock. SEC Adjusted US sales, however, dropped 11%, and Ozempic sales globally declined by 8%. SEC The rollout is robust, but the sustainability of the revenue run-rate is still uncertain.
What is the level of competitive pressure from Eli Lilly?
CagriSema achieved 23.0% weight reduction compared to tirzepatide's 25.5%, failing to establish non-inferiority. GlobeNewswire Lilly increased its 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $82bn–$85bn after reporting first quarter results. Eli Lilly and Company Novo currently projects its sales guidance midpoint at an 8% drop. Novo also saw an 11% decrease in US adjusted sales, mainly due to lower realised prices. SEC The difference in performance justifies a reduced multiple unless competitive momentum strengthens.
Is Novo Nordisk considered inexpensive following today's decline?
Novo Nordisk shares are priced at DKK303.7, representing 13.2 times projected 2025 diluted earnings per share. Earnings stood at DKK23.03, with management now forecasting softer momentum into 2026. investing.com The company’s DKK11.70 dividend offers a yield near 3.9%, and buybacks could reach DKK15bn. Novo Nordisk Annual Report Still, the midpoint of sales and operating profit guidance points to an 8% fall. While the valuation appears undemanding, uncertainty surrounds the stability of future earnings.
What should investors focus on in the August 5 results?
Novo will announce first-half earnings on August 5. novonordisk.com Investors should focus on US adjusted sales, sales of Wegovy in tablet form, and actual pricing outcomes. In the first quarter, US adjusted sales dropped 11%, while obesity product volumes continued rising. Sales of the tablet reached DKK2.26bn, aided by launch inventory. SEC The company forecasts sales and operating profit to be down by 4%–12%; a tighter guide above minus 8% would provide support. SEC
Which catalysts are still in play after ZEUS collapsed?
The approval of the Wegovy pill in Europe stands out as the most significant near-term commercial driver. It is now the EU’s first approved oral GLP-1 therapy for weight management. Results from the OASIS 4 trial showed an average weight loss of about 17% compared with 3% for placebo. A 7.2mg formulation of Wegovy was also cleared in Europe after a trial indicated around 21% weight loss. novonordisk.com The FDA decision on CagriSema is anticipated by late 2026, creating another major milestone. GlobeNewswire The HERMES and ARTEMIS studies are expected to report results in the first half of 2027, but the ZEUS findings have dampened sentiment. novonordisk.com
What do price targets from analysts indicate?
Consensus offers little in terms of strong bullish support for investors. Data from Investing.com lists 26 analysts, with 18 recommending hold and an average target of DKK317.2, suggesting a potential 4.45% upside. investing.com Fintel reports a June ADR average at $51.19—approximately 9.6% higher than $46.72. Analyst estimates range from $31.01 to $73.18, indicating significant disparity among projections. Fintel Most listed targets were set before the current ZEUS outcome and may be revised, but updates are not guaranteed.
What are the key price points and index levels to watch now?
The decline today is largely linked to company-specific factors, as OMXC25 was down just 1.61%. Nasdaq Global Index Watch NVO dropped 9.5%, wiping out approximately $21.6bn in market capitalization to close at $46.72. Market participants are monitoring support at $45.45 while viewing $51.61, the previous close, as resistance. The 52-week range runs from $35.12 up to $64.16. The Wall Street Journal Should shares fall below $45.45, it would leave the lower half of the range exposed.
Mateusz Kaczmarek is a financial and technology journalist at TS2.tech, covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global market developments. A graduate of the Poznań University of Economics and Business, he previously worked in financial analysis before moving into business journalism. His reporting focuses on technology companies, market trends and the forces shaping global investment markets. Follow Mateusz Kaczmarek on Google News.
