NEW YORK, August 2, 2026, 12:01 p.m. EDT
- U.S. markets will not open on Sunday. Palantir is set to announce its second-quarter earnings after markets close on Monday.
- Consensus estimates suggest revenue of $1.812 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.34.
- Options are pricing in a potential post-earnings swing of as much as 10%, equivalent to roughly $31.6 billion in market capitalization.
Palantir is set to report its results following Monday’s market close. The company’s earnings webcast is scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. EDT.
The initial test is notably substantial. A 10% change is equivalent to about four times the annual revenue guidance provided by Palantir.
| Measure | Value | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Friday’s close | $123.06 | Advanced 0.1% since July 24 |
| Market cap | $316.4 billion | — |
| Options-implied movement | ±10% | Equivalent to about ±$31.6 billion |
| 2026 revenue guidance midpoint | $7.656 billion | Implied swing equates to 4.1x sales |
The estimates are based on Friday’s closing figures, prevailing options prices and management guidance given in May.
The earnings bar is low. Early revenue consensus is just 0.7% higher than management’s midpoint forecast for the second quarter.
However, reaching that projection would still represent a deceleration in growth. Revenue would increase by 80.5%, compared to an 85% gain in the previous quarter.
| Metric | Q2 2025 actual | Q2 2026 guidance midpoint | Q2 2026 preliminary estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.004 billion | $1.799 billion | $1.812 billion |
| Year-on-year growth | 48.0% | 79.2% | 80.5% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.16 | — | $0.34 |
| Adjusted operating margin | 46.0% | 59.2% implied | — |
To maintain growth for the first quarter, revenue needs to hit approximately $1.857 billion, which is $45 million higher than the initial consensus estimate.
The bigger challenge is in U.S. commercial sales. Early projections point to a 134% increase, compared to 72% growth in U.S. government revenue.
Using those rates with last year’s bases yields the comparison below:
| U.S. segment | Q2 2025 actual | Q1 2026 actual | Q2 2026 derived estimate | Sequential increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial | $306 million | $595 million | $716 million | $121 million |
| Government | $426 million | $687 million | $733 million | $46 million |
| Combined U.S. | $733 million | $1.282 billion | $1.449 billion | $167 million |
Commercial transactions are projected to account for approximately 73% of the anticipated quarter-over-quarter U.S. rise, positioning commercial demand as the primary variable for the period.
Palantir has lifted its annual goal, now forecasting U.S. commercial revenue to exceed $3.224 billion in 2026.
| U.S. commercial revenue track | Amount |
|---|---|
| Q1 reported | $595 million |
| Q2 early calculated estimate | $716 million |
| Projected total, first half | $1.311 billion |
| Minimum full-year outlook | $3.224 billion |
| Revenue target for second half | $1.913 billion |
| Average required per quarter in second half | $956 million |
| Gain over Q2 figure | 34% |
Palantir will require commercial revenue of almost $1 billion each quarter in the second half. The focus on Monday may shift more to the third-quarter outlook than the actual earnings beat.
Chief Executive Alex Karp said following the first quarter, “The United States remains the center, the constant core, of our business. And that business is erupting.” Reuters
Profitability gives management flexibility. The Q2 outlook points to a 59.2% adjusted operating margin, close to Q1’s 60%. Palantir finished March holding $8 billion in cash and Treasuries. Adjusted free cash flow totaled $925 million.
The shares did not participate in last week’s software rally. Snowflake Inc. NYSE:SNOW, Datadog Inc. NASDAQ:DDOG, and Salesforce Inc. NYSE:CRM all rose over 8%.
| Company | July 24 close | July 31 close | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palantir | $122.92 | $123.06 | +0.1% |
| Snowflake | $268.06 | $293.28 | +9.4% |
| Datadog | $246.86 | $267.97 | +8.6% |
| Salesforce | $163.66 | $184.02 | +12.4% |
The separation indicates that investors viewed Palantir’s earnings uncertainty as distinct from the broader recovery in software stocks.
Analyst projections continue to show an uncommon level of divergence. There are 19 buy ratings, three overweight ratings, 11 holds, and two sells. Price targets span from $70 to $255, and the median target is $200.
Risks: The current valuation offers limited cushion if growth decelerates. London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s office has claimed that a police procurement process gave Palantir preferential treatment for a contract valued at up to £50 million. Authorities blocked the agreement, and Palantir has contested this move.
The week begins with Monday’s report, starting a packed schedule. On Friday, the U.S. jobs data is forecast to indicate 83,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Better-than-anticipated figures may increase expectations for higher rates and weigh on software stocks considered expensive.
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