Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI) rises 3.5% after limited insider sales activity
2 August 2026

Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI) rises 3.5% after limited insider sales activity

NEW YORK, August 2, 2026, 14:20 EDT —

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz closed last week up 3.5%. Director Vyacheslav Kim disposed of 56,806 ADSs using a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. The last filing was submitted to regulators late Friday, following the close of Nasdaq trading.

Stock chart for NASDAQ:KSPI

The sales accounted for 3.7% of Kaspi’s average weekly trading volume on Nasdaq. Kim sold 0.15% of his initial direct stake. On Friday, the share price closed 2.0% higher than Kim’s average sale price.

Scheduled director stock sales compared to Nasdaq trading

SessionADSs soldWeighted sale priceKSPI closeSales as share of volume
July 2717,490$86.58$86.484.8%
July 2816,954$86.47$86.684.6%
July 2914,592$87.81$87.144.5%
July 307,770$87.95$89.044.4%
Total for four sessions56,806$87.05$88.78 at July 31 close3.7% of the week’s volume

Price information is sourced from SEC filings. Market share figures reflect trading volumes that have been reported.

The transaction was minor. Kaspi’s bigger challenge is converting profit ahead of its August 10 results. First-quarter segment figures indicate an incremental adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.5%.

The Nasdaq and Kazakhstan Stock Exchange did not trade on Sunday. Kaspi ended Friday down 0.3% at $88.78. The S&P 500 rose 1.0% for the week.

Weekly returns and market valuation

Company or indexJuly 31 closeWeekly changeP/E ratio
Kaspi.kz $88.78up 3.5%7.6x
MercadoLibre Inc. $1,877.95rising 4.2%49.6x
Nu Holdings Ltd. $14.33gains 1.7%22.1x
Sea Ltd. $106.74increased 6.7%41.7x
S&P 5007,489.72rose 1.0%

Week-on-week figures reflect closing prices from July 24 and July 31. The Wall Street Journal
P/E ratios shown are based on the most recent available data.

Kaspi’s price-to-earnings ratio was 66% to 85% lower than that of its chosen peers. The companies vary in both business composition and accounting practices. Nevertheless, the difference underscores the importance of profit conversion.

Revenue for the first quarter increased by 31% to KZT1.1 trillion. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 9%, but net income slipped 1%. Net margin declined to 23.3% from 30.9%.

The margin bridge was straightforward. Increased interest expense subtracted 2.5 percentage points, while cost of goods sold accounted for a further 4.4 point reduction.

Segment breakdown of first-quarter profit conversion

SegmentRevenue growthAdjusted EBITDA growthEBITDA-margin changeIncremental margin
Marketplace+49%+12%-7.4 percentage points7.6%
Payments+7%0%-4.3 percentage points0%
Fintech+25%+12%-4.2 percentage points20.7%

Estimate calculated using rounded company data. Incremental margin is determined by dividing additional EBITDA by additional revenue.

Marketplace accounted for 64% of additional segment revenue, based on rounded numbers. However, it contributed just 42% of the incremental EBITDA. Fintech generated 58%. Payments brought in KZT11 billion in extra revenue but did not contribute to EBITDA.

CEO Mikheil Lomtadze stated that Türkiye is “an important part of our next growth phase.” The market accounted for 50% of first-quarter e-commerce GMV. Kaspi maintained its Turkish e-commerce division close to EBITDA break-even as investment continued.

Kaspi increased its stake on July 15, finalising the acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş., a fully licensed bank in Turkey. Its upcoming results on August 10 are set to be the first scheduled release after the deal’s completion.

Funding continues to weigh in the short term. Kaspi’s deposit funding cost rose to 14.3%, an increase of 220 basis points. On July 24, Kazakhstan’s central bank lowered its base rate to 16.75%. Inflation in June stayed at 10.3%.

The rate reduction could gradually reduce funding strains. Changes in deposit pricing may take time to reflect the cut. The central bank noted that inflation risks are still skewed upward.

The primary peer review is scheduled for Wednesday. MercadoLibre will announce its second-quarter results after the market closes on August 5. Kaspi is set to report the next Monday.

Kaspi’s full-year outlook establishes the next performance benchmark. In the first quarter, both GMV and payments volume were each one point under the annual guidance rate. Total finance value trailed the guided pace by seven points. Adjusted EBITDA growth was four points higher than the forecasted annual rate.

Risks encompass Turkish execution, fluctuations in currency, funding expenses, and credit quality. Kaspi’s non-performing loan ratio increased to 6.6% from 6.1% at the end of the year. The incremental margin estimate of 11.5% is based on rounded data from company segments.

That is the key to valuation. Simply increasing volume may not bridge the gap with peers. Kaspi must generate greater EBITDA from every additional tenge in revenue.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

What do the August 10 results need to demonstrate?
TFV, the primary measure, declined by 2% in the first quarter. The full-year forecast remains at about 5% growth, signaling the need for a significant ramp-up. Marketplace GMV increased by 19%, compared to a roughly 20% target set for 2026. Payments TPV advanced 14%, with a 2026 goal of around 15%. Adjusted EBITDA improved by 9%, surpassing the full-year estimate of approximately 5%. S&P-derived consensus projects Q2 revenue at KZT1.151 trillion, though this figure is based on input from only two analysts.
Is Türkiye emerging as the driving force, or does it remain a margin risk?
Türkiye accounts for half of Kaspi’s total e-commerce GMV. Hepsiburada was close to EBITDA breakeven in the first quarter. Roughly a third of GMV originated from first-party retail, which incurs product costs. Kaspi finalized its acquisition of Rabobank A.Ş. on July 15. The banking license allows Kaspi to accept deposits and offer other financial services in Türkiye. The company has not provided details on product timing, economics, or anticipated returns. SEC
Is there sufficient upside at this valuation?
MarketBeat lists trailing and forward P/E ratios of 8.19 and 7.26 at $88.78. The average price target from five analysts is $96.67, indicating potential upside of 8.9%. Price targets range from $87 to $107, indicating a broad dispersion. MarketBeat has a Hold rating on KSPI, while MarketScreener shows an Outperform consensus. Both sources still indicate around 9% potential upside from current prices. Analyst coverage remains sparse, so consensus is less robust. MarketBeat
What factors might hinder earnings growth?
Rising funding costs are still the most immediate threat to earnings growth. Deposit costs for the first quarter climbed 220 basis points to 14.3%. The NPL ratio reached 6.6%, up from 6.1% at the end of the year. Cost of risk increased to 0.7% from 0.6% a year earlier. Kazakhstan plans to raise the corporate tax rate for banks to 25% from 20% in 2026, while income from business lending will continue to be taxed at 20%. The July base-rate cut to 16.75% could offer some relief to funding pressures over time. SEC
To what extent does the dividend offer backing?
Kaspi’s first-quarter dividend of KZT850 per common share received approval. Each Nasdaq ADS corresponds to a single common share. This payout represented 64% of first-quarter earnings. Using an exchange rate of KZT473.59 per dollar, this amounts to approximately $1.79 per ADS. If paid out in four equal gross installments, the implied annualized yield would be 8.1% at $88.78. However, this quarterly rate is not assured, and returns will vary as currency values shift. Kaspi

Roman Perkowski is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic trends. A graduate of the Cracow University of Economics, he previously worked in investment research and corporate finance. His coverage helps readers understand the key forces driving global financial markets and emerging industries. Follow Roman Perkowski on Google News.

AI PORTFOLIO

Top Stock Picks

Today’s highest-ranked model selections.

#1 STRONG BUY

Xylem

NYSE: XYL 95 / 100
#2 BUY

AerCap

NYSE: AER 93 / 100
#3 BUY ON WEAKNESS

Visa

NYSE: V 90 / 100
#4 TACTICAL BUY

Chevron

NYSE: CVX 87 / 100
#5 ACCUMULATE

UPS

NYSE: UPS 84 / 100
View full portfolio
Editorial model selection. Not personalised advice.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) Stock Under Pressure Ahead of Earnings and $99 Billion Share-Supply Challenge
Previous Story

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) Stock Under Pressure Ahead of Earnings and $99 Billion Share-Supply Challenge

L3Harris Shares (NYSE:LHX) Drop Around $4.8 Billion After Postponed Missile IPO
Next Story

L3Harris Shares (NYSE:LHX) Drop Around $4.8 Billion After Postponed Missile IPO