NEW YORK, August 5, 2026, 13:07 EDT. Nasdaq was open for trading.
- IREN Limited NASDAQ:IREN was last seen at about $40.25, slipping 1.5% following two sessions of advances.
- The acquisition of Mirantis involved approximately 12.6 million shares along with nearly $40 million in additional consideration.
- IREN reports that 85% of its AI Cloud ARR target, exceeding $4 billion, is under contract. The company forecasts a fiscal 2026 EPS loss of $0.67.
Shares of IREN declined 1.5% on Wednesday following the AI cloud company’s completion of its Mirantis acquisition. The stock hovered around $40.25 during early afternoon trading.
The main concern is not demand. IREN reports that approximately 85% of its AI Cloud ARR target for year-end is already under contract. This suggests a value of at least $3.4 billion, according to company data.
The more challenging aspect is conversion. In the March quarter, AI Cloud Services generated $33.6 million in revenue. On an annualized basis, that amounts to approximately $134 million.
Contract visibility compared to recognized revenue
| Measure | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| AI Cloud Services revenue for the March quarter | $33.6 million | GAAP actual |
| Annualized simple revenue run-rate | $134.4 million | Preliminary calculation |
| AI Cloud ARR goal by end of 2026 | More than $4.0 billion | Non-GAAP target |
| Goal compared to annualized March level | More than 29.8 times | Preliminary calculation |
| Goal reported as contracted | About 85%, or $3.4 billion-plus | Preliminary calculation |
| Average contract length (weighted) | About four years | Company figure |
| Customer prepayments as share of related GPU capital spending | About 45% | Recent contracts |
The comparison is not directly equivalent. IREN determines ARR based on GPUs that have been commissioned, utilizing full-year operational hours, specific pricing, and additional services. This figure is still dependent on testing, actual utilization, and customer acceptance.
The Mirantis acquisition closes that operational gap. It brings in workload orchestration, monitoring, and customer support. IREN stated the purchased software has already contributed to a number of announced and potential contracts.
Mirantis “adds the software layer on top, turning infrastructure into a platform,” said Co-CEO Daniel Roberts. The company has provided services to over 1,500 enterprise clients. GlobeNewswire
IREN released approximately 12.6 million shares. The company included about $40 million in cash, restricted stock units, and additional consideration. The share element was valued at nearly $507 million, based on a price of $40.25.
The preliminary sum comes to about $547 million, marking a 12.5% decrease from the $625 million figure announced at the time of signing. This figure reflects a market-based estimate rather than a definitive purchase accounting value.
Mirantis review and possible equity offering
| Item | Amount | Investor comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Value at the time of signing | About $625 million | Calculated using fixed share terms |
| Total ordinary shares delivered | About 12.6 million | Approximately 3.5% of shares as of April 30 |
| Additional compensation | About $40 million | Comprised of cash, RSUs and miscellaneous |
| Current share value | About $507 million | Early market valuation |
| Total marked value | About $547 million | 12.5% lower than signing figure |
| Shares approved for resale | Up to 11.98 million | Roughly 3.4% of April 30 share count |
The percentage figures are based on IREN’s share count of 357.38 million as of April 30. The company’s present share total could be higher.
The SEC filing allows for the resale of as many as 11.98 million deal shares over a period of time. Registration does not indicate that any holders have sold shares. However, it enables the potential for increased supply.
Shares of companies linked to AI infrastructure mostly declined. CoreWeave, a direct cloud services provider, remained near its closing level from Tuesday.
Midday peer trading update
| Company | Latest price | Day change |
|---|---|---|
| IREN | $40.25 | -1.5% |
| CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV | $91.65 | -0.3% |
| Applied Digital Corporation NASDAQ:APLD | $30.48 | -2.5% |
| TeraWulf Inc. NASDAQ:WULF | $18.58 | -1.6% |
| Core Scientific Inc. NASDAQ:CORZ | $22.21 | -2.6% |
IREN gained 8.0% on Monday and advanced another 2.8% on Tuesday. Following a pullback on Wednesday, it stayed 9.4% higher than Friday’s closing level.
Analysts are still significantly more optimistic than the outlook for earnings. The consensus target price stands at $84.64, representing roughly a 110% premium over the current price. Meanwhile, the estimated fiscal 2026 EPS has shifted from a projected $0.55 profit to a $0.67 loss over the past three months.
Analyst ratings and estimate direction
| Measure | Three months ago | One month ago | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy ratings | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| Overweight ratings | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Hold ratings | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Underweight ratings | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sell ratings | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Consensus | Overweight | Overweight | Overweight |
| Fiscal 2026 EPS estimate | $0.55 | -$0.49 | -$0.67 |
| Average price target | n/a | n/a | $84.64 |
| Target range | n/a | n/a | $46 to $131 |
The disparity indicates analysts are factoring in more than present expenses. IREN’s most recent filing reported increased depreciation, stock-based compensation, and impairment costs amid its AI transformation.
Risks: The ARR projection relies on 480MW becoming operational by year-end. GPUs require successful commissioning and customer sign-off. Delays in integration, decreased utilization, or resale dependence could push out expected returns.
The following evidence concerns operating conversion. AI revenue already recognized must accelerate, but not at the expense of significant new losses or further dilution.
Related articles: NASDAQ:IREN
