World Cup Subscriber Gains Put Fubo Stock Near Q4 Breakeven Challenge

World Cup Subscriber Gains Put Fubo Stock Near Q4 Breakeven Challenge

NEW YORK, August 8, 2026, 14:13 EDT

  • Fubo reported adjusted EBITDA of $98.2 million over the first nine months. Based on its updated forecast, the company projects a fourth-quarter outcome ranging from an $8.2 million loss to a $1.8 million profit.
  • North American subscriber numbers increased by 2%. Global revenue on a comparable basis was almost unchanged, and adjusted EBITDA declined by 38%.
  • Shares rose 4.6% last week; however, they ended 13.1% under Wednesday’s earnings-day close.

FuboTV Inc. increased its minimum profit projection for 2026, though the math suggests a lackluster end to the year. The company’s reported quarterly totals amount to $98.2 million in adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months. The forecasted range of $90 million to $100 million signals the fourth quarter is likely to hover around break-even.

Stock chart for NYSE:FUBO

This forms the main investor benchmark. Fubo needs to demonstrate that customer growth driven by events can maintain profitability even following the uptick in viewership during the World Cup.

Paid subscriptions in North America climbed to an all-time high of 5.75 million, marking a 2% increase. Comparable revenue for the region remained nearly flat at $1.474 billion. An approximate revenue-per-ending-subscriber figure declined 2.2% to $256 per quarter, although this metric is not the company’s reported ARPU.

Q3 metricFY2026FY2025 pro formaChange
Global revenue$1,481.7 million$1,483.8 million-0.1%
North America paid subscribers5.75 million5.63 million+2.1%
Net loss$25.7 million$72.0 millionNet loss reduced by 64.3%
Adjusted EBITDA$19.1 million$31.0 millionDown 38.4%
North America advertising revenue$108.9 million$109.4 million-0.5%

Fubo reports prior-year results on a pro forma basis after its merger with Hulu + Live TV.

The net loss narrowed significantly. However, there was no gain in operating leverage. The adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 1.3% from 2.1% on a comparable revenue basis, with cash at quarter-end totaling $236.4 million.

The outlook for the full year provides minimal leeway for the fourth quarter:

Fiscal periodAdjusted EBITDA
Q1 FY2026, pro forma$41.4 million
Q2 FY2026$37.7 million
Q3 FY2026$19.1 million
Total for first nine months$98.2 million
FY2026 outlook$90 million-$100 million
Q4 projected range-$8.2 million to +$1.8 million

Fubo presents figures prior to Q2 2026 on a pro forma basis. The company increased just the bottom end of its guidance, which had been set at $80 million.

Distribution performance improved. ESPN’s “Where to Watch” referrals showed a higher conversion of free trials to paid accounts compared to alternative sources. Fubo additionally noted positive initial retention rates for these users. SEC

Advertising revenue from the World Cup was triple that of the 2022 edition, yet overall North American advertising revenue declined by 0.5%. Fubo reported that Disney’s advertising technology increased both inventory fill rates and pricing.

The Walt Disney Co. is now central to the plan. Fubo joined Disney as an affiliate following its merger with Hulu + Live TV in October 2025. The merged entity includes Hulu + Live TV, Fubo, and France-headquartered Molotov.

Alisa Bowen, who previously served as president of Disney+, stepped into the role of Chief Executive on July 10. Bowen stated that her confidence in Fubo’s “differentiation and unique growth prospects” has strengthened following her appointment. She intends to deliver a wider strategic update at the earnings call in November. Reuters

In an earnings-day conversation, Bowen addressed YouTube TV, operated by Alphabet Inc. . The most recent numbers maintain Fubo’s current priority for investors on driving monetization and maintaining its subscriber base.

The market responded with sharp volatility:

SessionClosing priceClose-to-close move
Friday, July 31$8.85
Monday, August 3$9.61up 8.6%
Tuesday, August 4$9.55down 0.6%
Wednesday, August 5 — earnings$10.66rallied 11.6%
Thursday, August 6$8.99fell 15.7%
Friday, August 7$9.26gained 3.0%
Full week$8.85 to $9.26up 4.6%

Fubo finished 13.1% lower compared to Wednesday’s close, although it posted a weekly increase. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 5.19% last week, the S&P 500 climbed 3.58%, and the Dow rose 2.96%. U.S. markets did not open on Saturday.

FactSet saw an increase in bullish analyst recommendations:

RecommendationOne month agoCurrent
Buy68
Hold32
Sell10
ConsensusOverweightBuy

Analysts have set an average price target of $17, with projections spanning $12 to $23. This average suggests a potential 84% rise from Friday’s closing price. The wide range highlights significant uncertainty in the forecasts.

Fubo has no investor events scheduled for the upcoming week. Market participants will focus on changes to estimates and indications of customer retention following the tournament. U.S. consumer inflation figures for July are due Wednesday, with producer price data set for Thursday and retail sales on Friday.

Risks: Significant changes in results may occur due to subscriber retention, seasonal performance, content obligations, and the integration of Hulu. Fubo’s projected EBITDA figures use non-GAAP measures and do not include a full GAAP reconciliation.

TS2 TECH • EXTENDED COVERAGE

Further analysis

Has Fubo experienced growth following the Hulu + Live TV merger?
No upturn in revenue yet. Fiscal third-quarter sales reached $1.482 billion, similar to the pro forma figure of $1.484 billion a year earlier. North American subscriber count increased 2% to 5.75 million. Advertising brought in $108.9 million, almost unchanged from $109.4 million. While World Cup ad revenue was three times higher than in 2022, overall ad revenue was flat.
Is rising profitability sufficient to bolster free cash flow?
Net loss was reduced to $25.7 million from a pro forma $72.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA declined 38% to $19.1 million. Fubo lifted its 2026 outlook to between $90 million and $100 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months stands at approximately $98.3 million. That outlook indicates adjusted EBITDA between negative $8.3 million and positive $1.7 million for Q4. The company still expects positive free cash flow in fiscal 2027.
Is it possible for Fubo to finance its strategy without putting further pressure on its balance sheet?
At the end of June, cash and restricted cash stood at $236.4 million, while total borrowings reached approximately $370 million. This places debt ahead of cash by about $134 million. Management continues to project no less than $200 million in cash by year-end. There is still a buffer. Debt remains significant.
How did conditions shift for minority shareholders in July?
Disney owns all 78.99 million Class B voting shares, granting it a controlling majority. Alisa Bowen, who previously served as Disney+ president, took over as CEO on July 10. Shareholders also authorized seven million more Class A shares for potential equity awards, representing 6.5% of common shares as of May 1. These shares are set aside but not yet issued. Bowen intends to present a strategy update in November.
Have investors bought into the earnings narrative?
No. FUBO ended trading at $9.26 on August 7, down 3.0% from its $9.55 close before the report. Shares surged 11.6% on earnings day to reach $10.66. However, by Friday, that advance had completely retraced.
Khadija Saeed

Khadija Saeed is a financial markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and emerging industries. She studied economics and finance at the London School of Economics and previously worked in market research before moving into financial journalism. Her coverage focuses on the companies, innovations and economic trends influencing global investors. Follow Khadija Saeed on Google News.

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