SAN FRANCISCO, August 13, 2026, 15:48 EDT — U.S. stock markets traded during regular hours.
- Shares of Salesforce rose close to 2% after J.P. Morgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating.
- The bank’s $250 price target suggests a 29% potential gain by December 2027.
- A representative re-rating could increase equity value by approximately $46 billion.
Salesforce NYSE:CRM stock climbed almost 2% on Thursday as J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee initiated coverage with an Overweight rating. Chatterjee set a price target of $250, projecting a 29% potential gain by December 2027.
The target has a significant impact on valuation. With 819 million shares as reported in July, a 29% revaluation would increase market capitalisation by about $46 billion. This figure is an example, as Salesforce’s expedited share buyback remains in progress.
The key question for investors is what needs to shift at an operational level. J.P. Morgan forecasts stronger core growth and believes AI-related risks are limited to a small segment of the business.
| Catalyst | Latest move or value | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Salesforce | Almost +2% | J.P. Morgan coverage launched |
| J.P. Morgan target | $250; 29% potential gain | Market underappreciates growth rebound |
| Workday NASDAQ:WDAY | +23% to $215.22 | Buyout report shifts software valuation |
| iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (BATS:IGV) | +2.8% | Broad sector recovery |
| S&P 500 | Roughly +0.7% | Salesforce posted stronger performance than the index |
Software shares attracted wider buying interest. Workday surged 23% following news that Silver Lake had considered a takeover, and the software ETF rose 2.8%.
The difference is significant. Workday’s action suggests there could be a control premium. Salesforce’s rise is based on an operational thesis that requires further proof.
| Salesforce metric | Q1 FY2027 | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.13 billion | Up 13% |
| Current RPO | $33.6 billion | Up 14% |
| Agentforce ARR | $1.2 billion | Surged 205% |
| Agentforce and Data 360 ARR | About $3.4 billion | Increase above 200% |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | 34.8% | Rising by 250 basis points |
Some of the argument is backed by Salesforce’s first-quarter numbers. The company posted revenue of $11.13 billion, and current remaining performance obligations increased by 14% to $33.6 billion.
Agentforce’s ARR climbed to $1.2 billion, an increase of 205%. However, this represented only 2.7% of annualized revenue for the first quarter. Growth for the product remains rapid, though it accounts for a small portion of the total.
Chatterjee described Agentforce as “crucial” to Salesforce’s future prospects as the software sector moves to autonomous agents. He also pointed to Data 360 and Headless 360 as key drivers of growth. J.P. Morgan view reported by MarketWatch
| Analyst | Recommendation | Price target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan | Overweight | $250 | Aug. 13 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | $185 | July 21 |
| CLSA | Hold | $165 | July 20 |
| Evercore ISI | Outperform | $250 | July 14 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | $242 | July 14 |
Wall Street is split over when movement will occur. The latest estimates range from $165 to $250, an $85 spread that matches roughly 44% of the level the market signaled for Thursday trading.
The upcoming fiscal second-quarter results, due August 26, will mark the next test. J.P. Morgan anticipates further evidence pointing to an upturn in core growth.
| Near-term hurdle | Company outlook | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 revenue | $11.27 billion–$11.35 billion | Street estimate at $11.36 billion |
| Q2 reported growth | 10%–11% | Just over 4 percentage points higher than Informatica |
| FY2027 revenue | $45.9 billion–$46.2 billion | Approximately 11% growth |
| FY2027 free-cash-flow growth | Roughly 4%–5% | Cut due to impact of debt-funded buyback |
Salesforce’s Q2 revenue outlook is centered at $11.31 billion, coming in just $50 million, or 0.4%, under the consensus figure. A modest beat could be enough to surpass near-term expectations.
However, the composition is more challenging. Informatica is expected to contribute just over four percentage points to second-quarter growth. With Agentforce growing, investors are looking for organic growth to pick up speed.
The balance sheet represents another consideration. Salesforce initiated an accelerated buyback of $25 billion and received approximately 103 million shares at the outset. The exact number will be determined by the settlement price of the program.
Risks: AI may accelerate the decline in seat-based software demand at a pace that Agentforce adoption does not offset. Spending on integration, reliance on debt to fund buybacks, and a soft Q2 outlook could further pressure the valuation.
Thursday’s 2% change is small compared to the 29% goal. The August 26 report will be key to revealing if Salesforce can translate AI adoption into organic bookings. That is the path to hitting $250.
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