NEW YORK, August 14, 2026, 13:55 EDT – Ondas shares rebounded following the latest drone tariff developments, but the company’s 2026 guidance means achieving a $256 million fourth quarter.
Ondas Inc. NASDAQ:ONDS shares gained 2.5% to $9.14 on Friday afternoon, following renewed interest in domestic suppliers triggered by new U.S. drone tariffs. The advance recouped only a portion of Thursday’s loss after earnings.
The bigger challenge comes in the fourth quarter. Ondas posted first-half revenue of $133.9 million and forecast third-quarter sales between $140 million and $155 million. To hit the midpoint of its updated annual guidance range of $525 million to $550 million, the company would need to generate approximately $256.1 million in revenue during the fourth quarter.
The calculation is straightforward math, not an official forecast from the company. This would mark a 74% rise quarter-over-quarter from the midpoint of the third quarter. The pro forma backlog stands at $757 million, offering a degree of visibility, though the rate at which these orders turn into revenue is now more significant than the overall backlog size.
| Trading checkpoint | Price / move | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday close | $8.91 | Shares fall post-earnings |
| Friday, 13:48 EDT | $9.14, +2.5% | Partial rally on tariff news |
| Friday volume | 73.4 million shares | Ranked as U.S.’s No. 2 active stock at time of data |
Second-quarter revenue totaled $83.8 million, an increase of 67% compared to the previous quarter and a surge of 1,236% over the same period last year. Management reported organic growth of 85% on a same-portfolio pro forma basis. Much of the reported growth came as a result of acquisitions, making the distinction significant.
| Q2 operating measure | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $83.8m | $50.1m | $6.3m |
| Gross margin | 43.1% | 49.2% | 53.1% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$50.6m | -$10.9m | -$5.8m |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | -60.4% | -21.8% | -92.1% |
The expense of expanding proved high. Adjusted EBITDA loss increased to $50.6 million, accounting for 60% of revenue. FactSet consensus had predicted a loss of $31.6 million, though revenue exceeded the estimate of about $68 million. The larger-than-expected loss, rather than weak demand, drove Thursday’s response.
Chief Executive Eric Brock said Ondas anticipates “volume deliveries [to] ramp on key programs” during the second half. The company’s management moved up its forecast for operating-platform adjusted EBITDA profitability to the fourth quarter of 2026. Target for company-wide adjusted EBITDA profitability stays in the fourth quarter of 2027. company release
| 2026 revenue bridge | Amount | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, first half | $133.9m | Reported |
| Revenue, Q3 | $140m-$155m | Company guidance |
| Total revenue, full year | $525m-$550m | Company target |
| Derived Q4 at midpoint | $256.1m | Arithmetic, not guidance |
| Q4 increase on Q3 midpoint | 74% | Arithmetic, not guidance |
Backlog stood at $613 million as of June 30. The pro forma total increased to $757 million after including DZYNE Technologies and Cyberhawk, acquired following the quarter’s close. This represents 1.41 times the midpoint of the yearly target. Ondas secured an additional $105 million in orders by August 10.
Liquidity eases immediate funding challenges. Ondas finished June holding $1.4 billion in cash, restricted cash, and short-term investments. The company spent about $325 million after the quarter closed to acquire DZYNE and Cyberhawk. Deducting these transactions leaves around $1.08 billion, though this figure does not reflect a current cash position since it omits additional third-quarter movements.
| Analyst / poll | Rating | Target | Latest action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel | Buy | $18 | Reiterated July 8 |
| Needham | Buy | $19 | Reaffirmed July 7; lowered from $23 |
| Lake Street | Buy | $19 | Reiterated July 6 |
| Eight-analyst poll | 8 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell | $19.81 average | Range $16-$25 |
The tariff news provided the sector with renewed momentum. Unusual Machines (NYSEAMERICAN:UMAC) surged roughly 25%, while AeroVironment NASDAQ:AVAV advanced approximately 1.2%. Ondas saw a smaller increase as the market continued to digest its recent earnings and acquisition-focused guidance. Although the tariffs could support higher prices for U.S.-produced systems, they do not directly speed up contract approvals or manufacturing processes.
Risks: Ondas faces the task of integrating two major acquisitions and needs to nearly double quarterly revenue once more. The timing of orders may vary, gross margin decreased in Q2, and adjusted losses were higher than forecast. While tariffs may support U.S. suppliers, exemptions or customer postponements could weaken their impact.
Friday’s recovery indicates that policy can underpin valuation. The next sustained signal will be performance. Investors require proof that the $757 million backlog will deliver the expected fourth-quarter increase without another jump in cash operating expenses.
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