SEATTLE, August 18, 2026, 14:45 PDT — Trading ended in U.S. markets.
- Shares of Alaska Air dropped 3.70% to $42.41 as Hawaii evaluated the impact of Hurricane Lala.
- The airline anticipates that Hawaii will reduce third-quarter unit revenue by 2–3 points.
- A three-percentage-point effect amounts to about $123 million on Alaska’s most recent quarterly revenue total.
Shares of Alaska Air Group, Inc. NYSE:ALK dropped 3.70% to $42.41 on Tuesday, as Hawaii evaluated new destruction caused by Hurricane Lala.
The storm is significant as Alaska owns Hawaiian Airlines. Previously, Hawaii was projected to lower third-quarter unit revenue by two to three points. Lala is now putting that recovery expectation to the test.
Over 100,000 people experienced power outages, a Monday damage assessment stated. Roughly 100 houses and six bridges suffered damage or were destroyed. Authorities reported one fatality. Updated reports on Tuesday indicated that Maui businesses also sustained structural damage.
Hilo and Kona airports suspended operations as the storm neared. Commercial ports on Hawaii Island, Maui County, and Kauai halted services as well. These shutdowns pose immediate risks for rebooking and disrupt traffic.
Preliminary estimate: One revenue point is equivalent to approximately $41 million based on Alaska’s $4.1 billion second-quarter base. The impact of three points comes to an estimated $123 million. This figure is 1.2 times higher than the company’s adjusted second-quarter loss of $102 million.
| Illustrative unit-revenue effect | Estimated revenue equivalent | Compared to Q2 adjusted loss |
|---|---|---|
| 1 point | $41 million | 0.4× |
| 2 points | $82 million | 0.8× |
| 3 points | $123 million | 1.2× |
The comparison does not forecast Lala’s costs. Unit revenue is influenced by capacity, fare levels and the composition of passengers. August does not have the spring-break focus seen in April. The latest storm may also postpone the September booking rebound assumed in the outlook.
Alaska reported that March rainstorms lowered second-quarter system unit revenue by roughly three points. Overall revenue climbed 10% to $4.1 billion. Capacity rose just 1%, and unit revenue gained 8.6%.
| Operating metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue passengers | 15.06 million | 15.23 million | -1.2% |
| Load factor | 82.3% | 83.9% | -1.6 points |
| Revenue per available seat mile | 16.72¢ | 15.39¢ | +8.6% |
| Non-fuel unit cost | 11.40¢ | 10.70¢ | +6.5% |
| Economic fuel cost per gallon | $4.43 | $2.39 | +85.4% |
Chief Executive Ben Minicucci stated, “Absent the fuel headwind, we would have delivered a solidly profitable quarter.” Alaska projects third-quarter fuel costs at $3.75 per gallon. The company reported $3.8 billion in available liquidity as of June 30. Company statement
The drop on Tuesday outpaced key competitors. Delta Air Lines, Inc. NYSE:DAL slipped 2.17%, while Southwest Airlines Co. NYSE:LUV declined 1.96%. This results in a company-specific depreciation in addition to the wider airline sector downturn.
| Airline stock | August 18 close | Daily change |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska Air | $42.41 | down 3.70% |
| Delta Air Lines | $85.70 | decreased 2.17% |
| Southwest Airlines | $42.49 | off 1.96% |
Wall Street sentiment is largely upbeat. Of 11 analysts followed by Google Finance, 10 recommend Buy for Alaska. The average price target stands at $64.32, reflecting potential gains of 51.7%, with the minimum target set at $37.
| Analyst measure | Value | Distance from $42.41 |
|---|---|---|
| Buy ratings | 10 out of 11 | 90.9% of total analysts |
| Hold ratings | 0 | 0% |
| Sell ratings | 1 | 9.1% |
| Average target | $64.32 | up 51.7% |
| Target range | $37–$92 | from -12.8% to +116.9% |
Last week, one analyst reiterated a $60 price target. Lala moves focus away from valuation, turning to bookings instead. Investors require proof that system-level yields reflect a recovery in September demand.
Risks: Assessments of damage are still initial. Flights that did not operate could be rescheduled instead of being cancelled. However, if repair work on infrastructure takes longer, it could reduce leisure demand past the immediate storm period. Earnings may also be affected by fluctuations in fuel prices and the ongoing expenses related to integrating Hawaiian.
The coming week is expected to provide clearer information on airport access, booking cancellations, and the timeline for recovery. If the disruption remains limited, Alaska’s third-quarter inflection scenario could hold. However, a further setback of three points would present a greater challenge.
Related articles: NYSE:ALK
Aug. 18, 2026 · 4:00:11 p.m. EDT
U.S. market closed
| Metric | Q2 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $4.1B | +10% |
| RASM | 16.72¢ | +8.6% |
| Non-fuel unit cost | 11.40¢ | +6.5% |
| Fuel / gallon | $4.43 | +85.4% |
| Adjusted net result | −$102M | Loss |
