SHANGHAI, August 19, 2026, 23:21 CST
- CXMT ended the session at 57.55 yuan, a decline of 2.77%, though the stock has risen 7.5% since August 12.
- Just 6.73% of total outstanding shares were available for trading at the time of listing, amplifying price fluctuations.
- The average price target from five analysts stands at 63.36 yuan, representing a 10.1% premium to the latest closing price.
CXMT Corporation SHA:688825 closed Wednesday with a headline valuation of $586.44 billion. However, only 6.73% of its equity was available for public trading. This disparity is the main valuation risk following a 565% surge from its IPO price.
The DRAM manufacturer traded on the Shanghai exchange ended at 57.55 yuan, falling 2.77%. Despite the drop, it remains up 7.5% compared to the close on August 12. The market was not open at the time this report was published.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange has 66.88 billion shares in total. Of these, just 4.50 billion began trading on July 27. As of Wednesday’s market close, the available float was valued at 259.15 billion yuan, compared to an overall market capitalization of 3.85 trillion yuan.
| Valuation bridge | Verified input | Investor reading |
|---|---|---|
| Closing price | 57.55 CNY | Fell 2.77% on August 19 |
| Total shares | 66.88 billion | Market value: 3.85 trillion CNY |
| Initially tradable shares | 4.50 billion | Account for 6.73% of total |
| Tradable-float value | 259.15 billion CNY | Significantly below overall market cap |
| Gain from 8.66 CNY IPO price | 564.5% | Margins for error are slim |
CXMT’s valuation remains supported despite the small float. However, price discovery may be less robust as a result. A smaller pool of shares available can heighten both demand-driven price surges and the impact of liquidity withdrawals. Reuters pointed out that only 6.73% of shares were tradable following the initial market entry.
CXMT delivered strong performance, posting 2025 revenue at 61.80 billion yuan. Revenue for the first quarter of 2026 came in at 50.80 billion yuan, representing a 719.1% increase. Net profit reached 33.01 billion yuan. The company projected first-half revenue in the range of 110 billion to 120 billion yuan and net profit between 66 billion and 75 billion yuan.
| Operating measure | 2025 or Q1 2026 | H1 2026 company forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 61.80B CNY for 2025; 50.80B in Q1 | 110B–120B CNY |
| Net profit | 33.01B CNY for Q1 | 66B–75B CNY |
| Global DRAM position | Ranked fourth; 7.7% market share in 2025 | Focus remains on capacity growth |
| Preliminary annualized P/E | 27.3 times | Reflects doubling the H1 midpoint |
| Preliminary annualized sales multiple | 16.7 times | Calculated as H1 midpoint doubled |
The annualized multiples shown are preliminary and do not represent company guidance. They are calculated by doubling the midpoint of first-half ranges. Memory earnings fluctuate significantly based on pricing, utilization, and product mix, so a straight-line approach may overstate ongoing profitability.
CXMT ranks as the fourth-biggest DRAM supplier, trailing Samsung Electronics KRX:005930, SK Hynix KRX:000660 and Micron Technology NASDAQ:MU. The company’s projected 7.7% market share in 2025 indicates further growth potential, while highlighting the gap in scale between CXMT and the top three firms.
| DRAM maker | Market value | 1-day change | P/E ratio | Analyst recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXMT | $586.44B | -2.77% | Not available | Buy |
| Samsung Electronics | $1.19T | -7.82% | 11.01 | Strong buy |
| Micron Technology | $1.03T | -2.66% | 20.73 | Strong buy |
| SK Hynix | $852.81B | -9.75% | 6.59 | Strong buy |
The peer table illustrates the premium priced into CXMT. Its early annualized earnings multiple of 27.3 times surpasses those of the three leading companies shown. This valuation reflects expectations for brisk market share growth and sustained robust DRAM prices.
| Analyst measure | Recommendation or value | Implied move from 57.55 CNY |
|---|---|---|
| Five-analyst consensus | Buy; average price target 63.36 CNY | +10.1% |
| Nomura | Price target at 116 CNY | +101.6% |
| Target range | 16.10–116 CNY | -72.0% to +101.6% |
| Consensus mix | 3 buy, 1 hold, 1 sell | Substantial variation |
Nomura forecasts that CXMT will hold an 18% share of the global DRAM market by 2028. The firm estimates the company’s monthly wafer production will increase from 280,000 units at the close of 2025 to 550,000 by the end of 2028. The 116-yuan target represents the highest estimate within a wide spectrum.
President Mark Cao has recognized the cyclical nature. “The DRAM market, characterized by price fluctuations and intense competition as a commodity, faces mounting uncertainties on a global scale,” he said in a company statement. CXMT
In the coming week, investors will monitor if CXMT remains above the August 12 closing level of 53.52 yuan. They will also follow updates on funding for proposed capacity expansions. Reuters reported that, if carried out, planned new projects have the potential to more than double current production.
Risks: DRAM prices are prone to swift reversals. Export restrictions could limit access to advanced equipment, and Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron continue to lead in high-bandwidth memory. An increased future float might challenge Wednesday’s valuation.
Related articles: SHA:688825
Small float, enormous valuation
Price milestones CNY per share
Float versus total equity
Operating momentum
Analyst target dispersion
| Measure | Target | Vs. close |
|---|---|---|
| Low | ¥16.10 | −72.0% |
| 5-analyst average | ¥63.36 | +10.1% |
| Nomura | ¥116.00 | +101.6% |
DRAM peer valuation snapshot
| Company | Market cap | P/E | 1-day move | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXMT | $586.44B | n/a | −2.77% | Buy |
| Samsung | $1.19T | 11.01× | −7.82% | Strong buy |
| Micron | $1.03T | 20.73× | −2.66% | Strong buy |
| SK Hynix | $852.81B | 6.59× | −9.75% | Strong buy |
