NEW YORK, August 20, 2026, 11:21 EDT — StubHub Holdings, Inc. NYSE:STUB posted its highest-ever second-quarter sales, but shareholders saw minimal quarterly earnings. The focus now shifts from the impact of the World Cup to the profit shortfall.
Analysts continue to expect significant upside, with an average price target of $11.63 — 67.8% above Wednesday’s $6.93 closing price. However, the latest reductions in price targets indicate investors are seeking improved earnings quality rather than an increase in ticket sales.
Demand remained strong. Gross merchandise sales increased by 34% to $3.1 billion. Revenue grew 33% to $573.1 million, and adjusted EBITDA almost doubled.
Chief Executive Eric Baker described the World Cup as “record-setting.” He noted in the quarter a robust appetite for live events. The tournament led to one-time support and fulfillment expenses. StubHub second-quarter release
| Q2 2026 metric | Result | Year-on-year | Investor read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross merchandise sales | $3.1 billion | +34% | World Cup drove higher sales |
| Revenue | $573.1 million | +33% | Roughly 18.5% of GMS |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $105.7 million | +94% | Margin reached 18.4% |
| Free cash flow | $309.7 million | Not stated | Robust seasonal cash generation |
The profit breakdown is less impressive. StubHub posted consolidated net income of $14.6 million. Net income attributable to common stockholders showed a loss of $40,000, equating to zero cents per share.
| Profit measure | Q2 2026 | Margin on revenue | What it captures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $105.7 million | 18.4% | Operating earnings prior to some expenses |
| Consolidated net income | $14.6 million | 2.5% | Total profit including all consolidated operations |
| Attributable to common stockholders | -$0.04 million | About 0% | Quarterly net result for common shareholders |
The available cash provides management with flexibility to enhance performance. StubHub had $1.7 billion in cash at the end of June. Payments owed to sellers totaled $1.2 billion, and net leverage dropped to 3.0 times compared with 4.5 times at the end of the year.
The company increased its 2026 GMS forecast to a range of $10.1 billion to $10.3 billion, while maintaining adjusted EBITDA guidance between $400 million and $420 million. This indicates there is little additional margin expected from the increased volume.
| Volume checkpoint | GMS | Share of $10.2bn midpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $2.2 billion | 21.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.1 billion | 30.4% |
| First half | $5.3 billion | 52.0% |
| Implied second half | $4.9 billion | 48.0% |
Management anticipates GMS will grow at a low-single-digit rate in the second half. This outlook largely offsets the boost from the World Cup and shifts the focus to advertising and operating efficiency as drivers of earnings.
Investors have already adjusted their outlook. STUB finished trading at $6.93 as of 4:00 p.m. EDT on August 19, marking a drop of 70.5% from its IPO price of $23.50 set for September 2025.
The analyst spread is notably broad, indicating a lack of consensus on growth and the sustainability of margins after the tournament. Most recent moves have been target reductions, despite firms maintaining bullish ratings.
| Firm | August 2026 action | Rating | Target | Upside from $6.93 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Securities | Lowered rating; reduced from $11 | Underperform | $7.50 | 8.2% |
| Guggenheim | Reiterated; reduced from $12.50 | Buy | $11.00 | 58.7% |
| Evercore ISI | Reaffirmed; revised down from $15 | Outperform | $14.00 | 102.0% |
| Consensus | 7 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell | Buy | $11.63 | 67.8% |
BofA analyst Justin Post downgraded the rating to Underperform, pointing to volume headwinds in the second half and ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Evercore and Guggenheim maintained positive outlooks, though each reduced their price targets.
Regulation continues to be an immediate expense. In April, StubHub committed to pay $10 million in consumer redress following accusations of misleading fee disclosures. The federal order also imposed stricter pricing rules.
Risks: Ticket resale activity can fluctuate based on event availability and customer demand. Regulatory measures could limit fees. Elevated leverage, industry rivals, and World Cup benchmarks may also hinder progress toward common-equity earnings.
The upcoming test is straightforward. StubHub needs to maintain its GMS strategy for the second half while turning more adjusted EBITDA into net earnings. For now, the consensus projection of 68% upside reflects a margin estimate rather than a sales outlook.
Related articles: NYSE:STUB
StubHub: volume won. Profit did not.
NYSE: STUB · post-Q2 2026 investor dashboard
Three measures, three very different claims on the quarter.
Full-year GMS guidance midpoint
52% reached in H1 · $4.9bn implied in H2
Upside is calculated from the $6.93 August 19 close. Recent positive ratings were maintained while targets were trimmed.
The $11.63 consensus target is a margin-duration call, not a demand forecast.
