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Adverum (ADVM) Stock Skyrockets on News of Lilly’s $12.47/Share Gene Therapy Deal
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Adverum (ADVM) Stock Skyrockets on News of Lilly’s $12.47/Share Gene Therapy Deal

by
24 October 2025
  • Lilly Acquisition Deal: On Oct. 24 Eli Lilly announced it will acquire Adverum Biotechnologies for $3.56 cash per share plus a CVR worth up to $8.91, implying a total of $12.47 per share if milestones are met [1] [2]. The agreement gives Lilly control of Adverum’s lead gene therapy Ixo-vec (Phase 3 wet-AMD candidate) and includes a secured loan of up to $65 million to fund Adverum’s trials before closing [3] [4]. Adverum’s CEO Laurent Fischer hailed the deal: “We are excited about the potential to join Lilly… to deliver a transformative One and Done™ therapy” [5]. Lilly’s Andrew Adams added that “Ixo-vec has the potential to transform wAMD treatment… to a convenient one-time therapy” [6].
  • Stock Price Reaction: ADVM shares leapt ~17% on Oct. 24 after the news [7]. On Oct. 23 (Thursday) ADVM closed at $4.18 [8], and briefly traded near $4.90 in premarket Friday [9]. For context, the stock had been sliding in recent days – from around $5.32 on Oct. 9 to $4.18 by Oct. 23 [10] – so the takeover news provided a sharp jolt upward. Even after Friday’s surge, ADVM remains well below the deal’s $12.47 maximum, reflecting the contingent nature of the CVR payments [11] [12].
  • Pipeline & Trial Updates: Adverum’s lead program is Ixo-vec, a one-time AAV gene therapy for wet age-related macular degeneration. Screening for the pivotal Phase 3 ARTEMIS trial was completed in Sept. 2025 – seven months after start – and full enrollment is now expected by Q4 2025 (earlier than the previous Q1 2026 goal), with topline data accelerated to Q1 2027 [13]. In parallel, two-year follow-up data from the Phase 2 LUNA study are due in late 2025 [14]. Adverum also plans a second registrational trial (AQUARIUS) for Ixo-vec once funding allows [15]. All this has won fast-track and RMAT designations from FDA (and PRIME in Europe) for Ixo-vec [16], underscoring the high hopes for its “one-and-done” potential in the ~$10B wet-AMD market.
  • Financial Health & Runway: Adverum had been cash-strapped. At June 30, 2025 the company held only $44.4M [17], down from $125.7M at year-end 2024 – reflecting heavy spending on the ARTEMIS trial. Management warned this cash would fund operations only into Q4 2025 [18]. In fact, industry press noted Adverum’s ~$44M would have been “running dry” by October if no new funding arrived [19]. The Lilly deal addresses this: under the merger Adverum can draw on a $65M loan (secured by company assets) to support ongoing trials until closing [20]. (Absent the deal, the board had explored other funding or partnerships but faced limited options.) Adverum also raised $10M in August 2025 via a private placement with Frazier Life Sciences [21], but the Lilly infusion was viewed as the last major funding lifeline.
  • Analyst Consensus & Targets: Before the takeover news, analysts were divided. MarketBeat reports a consensus “Hold” rating (1 sell, 1 hold, 3 buy) with an average 12-month target of about $19.75 [22]. Price targets ranged widely – for example, Chardan Capital had a buy rating with a $33 target [23], while Mizuho’s outperform rating carried only a $12 target [24]. This reflects the high-risk/high-reward nature of Adverum: bullish forecasts hinge on Ixo-vec’s market success and the deal closing, while bearish views point to funding needs and trial risks. (For reference, Zacks had targets spanning $3.00 to $33.00 pre-deal.)
  • Bullish vs. Bearish Views: On the bull side, proponents emphasize the transformative potential of Ixo-vec and the strong clinical momentum. Adverum management has touted retina specialist enthusiasm for a true “one-and-done” wet-AMD therapy [25]. The Lilly acquisition itself signals big-pharma confidence. On the bear side, skeptics caution that Adverum’s valuation is capped by unmet milestones: without FDA approval or blockbuster sales, shareholders only get $3.56 per share [26]. As one biotech outlet noted, Lilly’s offer was slightly below the $4.18 close on Oct. 23 [27]. They also remind investors that gene-therapy trials carry safety and execution risks (past Adverum trials had issues with inflammation) and the cash burn is high [28] [29].
  • Industry Context & Outlook: The acquisition underscores a broader trend of big players shoring up gene therapy pipelines. Ixo-vec’s expedited FDA/EMA designations reflect intense interest in one-time ocular treatments. Competition is heating up: rival companies and new drug classes (e.g. longer-acting anti-VEGF injections or tyrosine kinase inhibitors) are in development [30]. For ADVM shareholders, key upcoming catalysts include LUNA 2-year data (Q4 2025) and the start of the AQUARIUS trial once funds arrive [31]. Technically, indicators were mixed (some short-term oversold signals pre-news); sentiment shifted positive on the deal. In sum, ADVM has run up from mid-$4 to near $5 on optimism – but the stock still trades well below the deal’s max price, so its future will hinge on the Artеmis results and milestone successes [32] [33].

Sources: Official press releases and filings [34] [35], Reuters, Investing.com, Fierce Biotech [36], and analyst reports [37] [38]. All data as of market close Oct. 23, 2025 and news through Oct. 24, 2025.

Adverum Biotechnologies Gains Momentum in Gene Therapy (OIS@AAO 2016)
Watch this video on YouTube.

References

1. www.stocktitan.net, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. investors.adverum.com, 4. www.stocktitan.net, 5. investors.adverum.com, 6. investors.adverum.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.investing.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. investors.adverum.com, 14. investors.adverum.com, 15. investors.adverum.com, 16. investors.adverum.com, 17. investors.adverum.com, 18. investors.adverum.com, 19. www.fiercebiotech.com, 20. investors.adverum.com, 21. investors.adverum.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. investors.adverum.com, 26. www.fiercebiotech.com, 27. www.fiercebiotech.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. investors.adverum.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. investors.adverum.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. investors.adverum.com, 35. investors.adverum.com, 36. www.fiercebiotech.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com

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Mateusz Kaczmarek Latest posts

A technology and finance expert writing for TS2.tech. He analyzes developments in satellites, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence, with a focus on their impact on global markets. Author of industry reports and market commentary, often cited in tech and business media. Passionate about innovation and the digital economy.

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