Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM) is back in the spotlight heading into the final stretch of 2025, as investors weigh a mix of big-partner momentum, international expansion headlines, and a fresh round of analyst target updates.
As of Dec. 19, 2025, AFRM is trading around $76, swinging within a $73.68–$78.32 day range, with a 52-week range of $30.90–$100.00 and a market cap around $25.21 billion, according to Investing.com’s market snapshot. [1]
What’s moving Affirm stock this week
The biggest narrative driver is simple: distribution. In buy-now-pay-later (BNPL), winning checkout real estate at the world’s largest merchants is the game—and Affirm just reduced a major “what if” hanging over its story.
In its fiscal Q1 2026 shareholder letter filed on EDGAR, Affirm stated it extended its U.S. agreement with Amazon for an additional five years through January 2031. That statement gave markets something they love: clarity on a core channel that can move meaningful volume. [2]
Around the same period, management commentary also pushed back on worries about weakening trends. In a widely-circulated recap of a CFO fireside chat, Investing.com reported CFO Rob O’Hare said third‑party data sources showed “significant tracking error” this quarter—implying Affirm’s internal read on GMV trends is stronger than what some external trackers suggested. [3]
Expansion headlines: Shopify in the UK and more international checkout surface area
While Amazon is the “elephant in the room,” the more subtle (and potentially compounding) story is Affirm steadily multiplying the number of places it can appear at checkout—especially outside the U.S.
On Dec. 10, 2025, coverage of Affirm’s Shopify partnership noted the UK launch of Shop Pay Installments, “powered exclusively by Affirm,” allowing approved customers to split purchases into monthly payments (including interest-free or interest-bearing plans depending on eligibility). The same report said thousands of UK merchants activated the product after early access began in October, and one merchant cited higher average order values versus other payment methods. [4]
Industry coverage also emphasized the underwriting angle: Affirm underwrites transactions and makes a real-time credit decision—important context because BNPL’s reputational risk often comes from “is anyone actually checking ability-to-repay?” conversations. [5]
Affirm’s international push isn’t only via Shopify. Reports this week also highlighted an expanded partnership with fashion retailer REVOLVE, making Affirm’s pay-over-time options available to eligible shoppers in Canada and the UK—another example of Affirm trying to widen its footprint in categories (fashion/beauty) that naturally fit installment payments. [6]
Earnings reality check: growth, profitability, and what the company guided next
A stock can run on headlines for a while, but eventually it has to cash the reality check: GMV growth, revenue take-rate, credit performance, and funding costs.
From the shareholder letter covering the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025 (FQ1’26), Affirm reported:
- GMV of $10.8B (up 42% year over year)
- Revenue of $933.3M (up 34% year over year)
- Operating income of $63.7M and net income of $80.7M
- Active consumers of 24.1M and active merchants of ~418.9K [7]
On forward-looking guidance, Affirm’s outlook (as included in that same shareholder letter filing) called for Fiscal Q2 2026 GMV of $13.00–$13.30B and revenue of $1,030–$1,060M, alongside an adjusted operating margin of 28–30%. For Fiscal 2026, the filing pointed to more than $47.5B in GMV (and “more than 27.1%” adjusted operating margin). [8]
Credit is the other shoe investors always wait to hear drop in BNPL—especially after a sharp stock move. In the shareholder letter’s credit discussion, Affirm noted 30+ day delinquencies (excluding Peloton and Pay-in-X loans) declined year over year but rose quarter over quarter, framing the sequential increase as seasonality consistent with prior years. [9]
Analyst forecasts on Dec. 19: ratings and price targets (and why they differ)
Today’s most “current” Street read comes from an analyst-consensus roundup published Dec. 19, 2025, which said Affirm carries an average “Moderate Buy” rating from 32 firms, with a mean 1-year price target around $86.57 (with a mix of buy/hold/strong buy ratings). [10]
Other widely-followed aggregation platforms show a higher target range, which is common because each service uses different inclusion rules and time windows:
- Investing.com lists an average 12‑month target around $92.67 (high $115, low $53) and summarizes the overall analyst rating as Buy. [11]
- TipRanks’ article recap shows a Strong Buy consensus (16 Buys, 5 Holds in the past three months) and an average target of $96.94, implying meaningful upside from the then-current trading level. [12]
The important takeaway isn’t “which number is correct.” The useful takeaway is that—across multiple databases—the Street is generally constructive, but not universally euphoric, and targets cluster in a band that suggests analysts believe the Amazon/Shopify-driven distribution advantage can keep translating into GMV and revenue growth.
Technical and positioning signals: “Strong Buy” readings, but volatility is the tax you pay
If you care about technical signals (or you care that other investors care), AFRM is flashing broadly bullish indicators on daily models—though it’s also a name known for whiplash.
Investing.com’s technical dashboard summarizes the daily signal as “Strong Buy,” with a 14‑day RSI around 60.847 (typically interpreted as bullish but not extremely overbought) and a MACD reading consistent with “Buy.” [13]
At the same time, the volatility profile is not subtle. The Investing.com recap of this week’s move notes Affirm’s market cap (~$24B at the time) and highlights its high beta (3.58)—basically a neon sign that AFRM can overreact in both directions. [14]
The bull case for AFRM stock right now
The bullish thesis being reinforced into Dec. 19 looks like this:
Affirm is turning BNPL into something closer to a payment network strategy—show up everywhere, route transactions, harvest data, improve underwriting and approvals, and then use that to win even more checkout placements. That’s not just marketing copy; the shareholder letter explicitly frames Affirm as a “network” and emphasizes scaling advantages in underwriting and decisioning. [15]
What makes the bull case punchier this week is the de-risking of distribution:
- Amazon extended through January 2031, reducing a major partner overhang. [16]
- Shop Pay Installments expansion into the UK widens reach beyond North America via Shopify’s merchant ecosystem. [17]
- The company is still stacking merchant routes (e.g., REVOLVE’s Canada/UK rollout). [18]
If you believe “BNPL is becoming a default financing layer of e-commerce,” then Affirm’s current play is to be the BNPL rail that keeps showing up at the biggest doors.
The bear case investors still need to respect
Even with upbeat headlines, AFRM still carries real risks that can bite quickly:
Valuation and expectations remain a live wire. One recent market commentary noted AFRM trading at premium multiples relative to earnings estimates, reflecting aggressive growth assumptions. [19]
Credit is always the lurking variable. Affirm’s own disclosure shows delinquency metrics can move quarter-to-quarter (even if management frames it as seasonal), and any surprise deterioration—especially coming out of the holiday period—can reset sentiment fast. [20]
Insider selling also tends to get attention in high-momentum names. A Dec. 19 analyst roundup highlighted notable insider sales activity, and earlier this month Investing.com reported CFO Robert O’Hare sold 8,189 shares at $70 under a 10b5‑1 plan (a pre-scheduled trading plan). [21]
None of these points is a “sell signal” on its own. Together, they’re a reminder that AFRM’s story can be simultaneously improving and still priced for a lot to go right.
What to watch next for Affirm stock
The next major scheduled catalyst is earnings: Investing.com lists Affirm’s next earnings report date as Feb. 5, 2026. [22]
Between now and then, the market will likely fixate on a handful of scorecard items that matter more than vibes:
- Whether holiday-season GMV and conversion trends match management’s pushback on third-party tracker pessimism [23]
- Progress against the company’s Q2 GMV and revenue guidance [24]
- Any post-holiday change in delinquency and loss curves [25]
- Evidence that the Shopify UK launch is translating into sustained activation and meaningful volume (not just “thousands activated” as a one-time PR metric) [26]
Bottom line on Dec. 19, 2025: Affirm stock is being repriced around a cleaner partner narrative (Amazon through 2031) plus broader distribution expansion (Shopify UK, additional merchant deals). Analysts remain generally positive, but the name’s volatility—and the market’s sensitivity to credit data and GMV trends—means AFRM can stay exciting in both directions.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. thepaypers.com, 6. www.pymnts.com, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.pymnts.com, 19. 247wallst.com, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.nasdaq.com
