AI Stocks Today: Nvidia, AMD and Big Tech React to Trump’s China Chip U‑Turn and Fed Meeting (December 9, 2025)

Published: December 9, 2025 – U.S. markets session

Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks are back in the spotlight today as Washington loosens key export rules for Nvidia’s most powerful chips, the Federal Reserve kicks off its final policy meeting of 2025, and Wall Street pumps out a fresh wave of bold forecasts — and bubble warnings — on the sector.

As of early afternoon on December 9, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Oracle and Microsoft were all trading near flat to modestly higher, reflecting cautious optimism rather than the euphoric spikes AI investors got used to in 2023–24. Nvidia stock was hovering around $185, down less than 1% on the day, while AMD was up roughly 0.6%, Broadcom nearly 1%, Oracle about 0.5% and Microsoft marginally higher.

Behind those modest moves lies a big shift in the AI narrative: the U.S. is reopening part of the China market to Nvidia, the Fed may be about to ease financial conditions further, and analysts are openly debating whether AI leadership is sustainable or dangerously over‑priced.

AI Stocks Today: Trump’s China Chip U‑Turn Sets the Tone

The headline story driving AI stocks this morning is U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to allow Nvidia to resume exports of its advanced H200 AI accelerators to “approved” customers in China. ^[1]

Reuters reports that Nvidia shares jumped about 1.7% in U.S. pre‑market trading after Trump said he would permit H200 sales to Chinese clients, subject to a 25% export fee. ^[2]
A follow‑up report says Chinese regulators are likely to limit local companies’ access to these chips, which could constrain how much of that demand Nvidia actually captures. Nvidia shares ultimately trimmed their gains, ending only about 0.6% higher in earlier trading, illustrating investors’ more measured reaction to AI headlines compared with prior years. ^[3]

A separate market note from TipRanks highlights that U.S. stock futures were modestly higher ahead of the open today, explicitly linking the uptick in tech to the White House’s H200 decision and the start of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December meeting. ^[4]

In short: Washington’s partial reopening of the China AI chip market is good news for Nvidia and its peers — but the details (fees, Chinese controls, and geopolitics) are complex enough that traders are no longer blindly bidding up every AI headline.

Nvidia Stock: Flat Day, Explosive Debate

Price action in Nvidia is surprisingly subdued relative to the news flow:

Current price: about $184–$185 per share, roughly flat on the session and within sight of recent highs.
Year to date: Reuters notes Nvidia shares are up nearly 40% so far in 2025, far ahead of the S&P 500’s roughly 16% gain, underscoring its outsized influence on the broader market. ^[5]

Yet the real fireworks today are in forecasts rather than the intraday chart.

1. Long‑term Nvidia forecast out to 2030

A new 24/7 Wall St. analysis published today lays out a detailed 2025–2030 roadmap for Nvidia’s fundamentals and stock price: ^[6]

Street 12‑month target: median analyst price target of $257.66 — about 39% upside from today’s share price.
Consensus rating: “Strong Buy,” with 39 Buys, 1 Hold and 1 Sell among 41 covering analysts.
24/7 Wall St. base case: $233.16 in 2025 (≈26% upside) based on projected EPS of $2.75 and a P/E of 50.
Internal 2030 base case: price of $318.42 — roughly 72% above today — assuming EPS of $7.24 and the same 50x multiple.
Range of outcomes: a low case of $217.20 (P/E 30) and a high case of $506.80 (P/E 70) by 2030.

Their model assumes Nvidia’s revenue climbs from about $121 billion in 2025 to roughly $266 billion by 2030, with net income more than doubling over the period, powered primarily by AI data center demand. ^[7]

2. Bank of America’s new $275 target

Separately, 24/7 Wall St. highlights a fresh $275 price target on Nvidia stock from Bank of America semiconductor analyst Vivek Arya. ^[8] Key points from that note:

Nvidia recently disclosed around $500 billion in data center orders for 2025–26, leading BofA to project sales and profits growing up to 70% annually in the near term. ^[9]
Even after the run‑up, BofA argues investors are paying only about 25x next year’s expected earnings, which they consider reasonable given the growth profile. ^[10]
Arya calls current skepticism around AI “healthy but overstated,” suggesting bearish sentiment is preventing the space from becoming dangerously overcrowded. ^[11]
The note also points to Amazon Web Services’ plan to use Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion platform inside its next‑generation Trainium 4 accelerator — an example of how Big Tech is still deeply tied to Nvidia even as it designs custom silicon. ^[12]

Taken together, today’s research flow reinforces the idea that Wall Street remains structurally bullish on Nvidia, even as political risk (export rules, China’s response) and extremes in valuation keep volatility high.

AMD, Broadcom and Oracle: Riding the AI Infrastructure Wave

Nvidia may grab the headlines, but several other AI‑exposed stocks are moving on related catalysts.

AMD stock pops on hopes of a broader China reopening

A widely circulated Yahoo Finance piece — echoed in multiple financial news feeds — notes that AMD shares “popped” after U.S. officials hinted at a broader reopening of AI chip exports to China, beyond Nvidia’s H200. ^[13]

MarketWatch and other outlets summarize the thesis this way: if Nvidia can sell high‑end AI accelerators into China again, regulators may also carve out room for competitors like AMD and Intel, supporting a broader AI hardware ecosystem. ^[14]

Today: AMD is trading around $222–$223, up roughly 0.6%, after hitting an intraday high just below $225.

Broadcom and Microsoft: Custom chips, same AI story

The TipRanks market recap points out that Broadcom (AVGO) and Microsoft (MSFT) shares jumped after Microsoft said it is exploring custom chips in partnership with Broadcom — another sign that cloud providers want more control over their AI infrastructure stacks. ^[15]

Broadcom stock is up close to 1% today around $405.
Microsoft is edging higher near $492, essentially flat but still near record territory with a market cap close to $3.9 trillion.

The message for investors: even as hyperscalers design their own silicon, the AI infrastructure spend is so large that Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom and others can all win — at least for now.

Oracle as “canary in the AI coal mine”

Earnings‑focused coverage on Yahoo Finance calls Oracle one of the last big AI beneficiaries yet to report this quarter, framing its results as a litmus test for enterprise AI demand. ^[16] A separate MarketWatch column goes further, branding Oracle “the canary in the coal mine for Big Tech” as it and its peers take on unprecedented debt and private credit deals to finance AI data centers and cloud capacity. ^[17]

Oracle shares are modestly higher today around $222, suggesting investors are cautiously optimistic heading into its report.

If Oracle or Broadcom were to hint at slower AI cloud spending in upcoming earnings, it could quickly ripple through valuations for the entire AI complex.

Fed Meeting: Why AI Stocks Are “Working Harder” for Gains

Today’s FOMC meeting is the second major pillar of the AI stock story.

TipRanks reports that futures on the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow were all up around 0.1% this morning as traders priced in a widely expected 25‑basis‑point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting. ^[18] The 10‑year Treasury yield sits near 4.17%, a level that still challenges richly valued growth stocks, but far below the peaks that rattled markets in 2023–24. ^[19]

A MarketWatch/Morningstar commentary titled “What the bears are getting wrong on AI” captures how rising rates and valuation fatigue have changed the trading dynamic. The author notes that months ago, a positive surprise like Trump’s H200 reversal might have produced outsized one‑day gains, but now AI stocks “have to work a lot harder” for each move higher as investors question whether earnings can keep up with expectations. ^[20]

In other words, lower rates still help AI stocks — but the market is no longer willing to pay any price for growth.

Bubble Talk vs. Structural Boom: What Today’s Commentaries Say

If you read today’s AI coverage end‑to‑end, one theme jumps out: the market is sharply divided on whether we’re in a bubble or at the start of a multi‑decade boom.

“AI bubble” warnings

A Fortune feature argues that an “AI bubble” could spell chaos for stock markets, comparing AI enthusiasm to past manias and urging investors to stress‑test portfolios for a potential unwind. ^[21]
MarketWatch’s “AI stocks are flashing ‘Code Red’ — insiders at these familiar companies are seeing green” explicitly calls out stretched valuations in high‑profile AI names, even as corporate insiders quietly buy shares in more traditional consumer companies. ^[22]

Palantir is the poster child for these concerns. A valuation roundup notes that:

Palantir shares recently traded at about 109 times revenue, versus roughly 24 times sales for Nvidia — “stratospheric” by almost any metric. ^[23]
The Economist has gone so far as to call Palantir “possibly the most overvalued firm of all time,” estimating its late‑2025 market value at more than 600 times 2024 earnings and about 85 times expected forward sales, the priciest stock in the entire S&P 500 on that basis. ^[24]

For critics, those numbers scream speculative excess.

The “AI arms race” and trillion‑dollar infrastructure buildout

On the other side, a fresh Morningstar special titled “AI Arms Race: How Tech’s Capital Surge Will Reshape the Investment Landscape in 2026” argues that record spending on AI infrastructure is fundamentally reshaping markets, not merely inflating a fad. It highlights how cloud giants and chipmakers are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers, networking gear and AI accelerators, with knock‑on effects across sectors. ^[25]

Complementing that, a 24/7 Wall St. piece on AI data centers notes that: ^[26]

The U.S. already hosts roughly 3,000 data centers, yet McKinsey estimates $5.2 trillion in AI‑related infrastructure investment will be needed globally by 2030.
Demand for AI‑ready data center capacity could grow at about 33% per year through 2030, driving long‑run revenue for specialized REITs like Digital Realty Trust and Iron Mountain, and for data‑center‑focused ETFs.

Linked‑in commentary from industry leaders cites research suggesting global cloud infrastructure spending hit $90.9 billion in Q1 2025, up 21% year‑on‑year, while some forecasts see up to $6–7 trillion in AI infrastructure capex by 2030. ^[27]

In this view, high valuations partly reflect a generational capital cycle, not just hype.

Magnificent Seven: not as extreme as headlines suggest?

An analysis in Inc. looks at the “Magnificent Seven” (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla) and finds that only Alphabet and Nvidia have outpaced the S&P 500 this year, while the other five actually lag the index. ^[28] As a group, the Magnificent Seven are up roughly 24% year‑to‑date versus about 16.7% for the S&P 500 — strong, but not wildly detached from the broader market. ^[29]

That nuance complicates the simple “everything AI is a bubble” narrative: a handful of names are stretched, but others look more like fast‑growing blue chips than speculative rockets.

Who’s Buying? Billionaires, Indexes and Retail Investors

Even with the bubble talk, big money continues to pile into select AI platforms.

A Nasdaq feature titled “Billionaires Buy 2 Brilliant AI Stocks as the Nasdaq Bull Market Rolls Toward 2026”spotlights Meta Platforms and Alphabet as recent favorites among hedge fund titans like Stanley Druckenmiller, Israel Englander, Ken Griffin and Philippe Laffont. ^[30]

The article notes that the Nasdaq Composite has returned about 31% annually in past bull markets since 1990, hinting at substantial upside if the current run continues. ^[31]
Billionaire managers are increasing stakes in Meta and Alphabet, betting on their ability to monetize AI through better ad targeting, recommendation engines and cloud services. ^[32]

On the retail side, multiple Motley Fool and AOL pieces published today and over the weekend highlight:

“1 AI stock that should be on every investor’s holiday list,” alongside continued bullishness on long‑term winners such as Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia. ^[33]
Debates over whether Palantir or Nvidia is the better AI stock to own heading into 2026, often concluding that Palantir’s upside is huge but so are its valuation risks. ^[34]

In short: institutional and retail investors haven’t abandoned AI — they’re just becoming choosier about where in the stack (chips, cloud, software, data centers) they want to take risk.

Key Themes AI Investors Should Watch This Week

If you’re following AI stocks day‑to‑day, here’s what matters most from today’s news flow and what to watch next:

The Fed’s December decision and guidance
- A dovish Fed (or a clear roadmap for cuts in 2026) would support long‑duration assets like high‑growth AI stocks.
- A more hawkish tone could compress multiples, especially in names trading at triple‑digit earnings or sales multiples. ^[35]
Oracle and Broadcom earnings (“show‑me” moment)
- Yahoo Finance and other outlets frame upcoming Oracle and Broadcom results as a “show me” test — do enterprise customers keep signing big AI cloud deals, or is the pace slowing? ^[36]
China’s implementation of Nvidia export rules
- Trump’s approval is a first step, but reports that Beijing will restrict access to H200 chips mean the effectivesize of the Chinese AI market for U.S. chipmakers is still in flux. ^[37]
AI data center buildout and power/infrastructure constraints
- Datacenter REITs and infrastructure‑heavy ETFs are increasingly central to the AI story, as shown by the data‑center boom coverage and McKinsey’s multi‑trillion‑dollar capex estimates. ^[38]
Valuation reset vs. structural growth
- Articles like “AI stocks are flashing ‘Code Red’” and Fortune’s bubble piece are gaining traction just as BofA doubles down on a $275 Nvidia target and 24/7 Wall St. lays out 70% growth assumptions. ^[39]
- How the market digests this tension — especially if earnings continue to impress — will shape AI leadership into 2026.

How to Think About AI Stocks After Today (Not Financial Advice)

For investors trying to make sense of AI stocks on December 9, 2025, today’s news and analysis suggest a few high‑level takeaways:

Concentration risk is real. Nvidia remains the primary engine of AI hardware profits, and even positive policy surprises (like H200 exports) are intertwined with political risk and foreign regulatory responses. ^[40]
The opportunity is bigger than just GPUs. AMD, Broadcom, Oracle, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Palantir and data‑center REITs all represent different layers of the AI stack — chips, cloud, software, and infrastructure — each with its own risk‑return profile. ^[41]
Valuations range from demanding to extreme. Some leaders (like Nvidia) trade at high but arguably defensible multiples given current growth, while others (notably Palantir) are priced for near‑perfection with sales and earnings multiples far above historical norms. ^[42]
Macro still matters. Lower rates and strong economic data support AI investment, but they’re not guarantees; disappointments from the Fed, corporate capex cuts, or a China‑related shock could hit the whole theme at once. ^[43]

This article is for information and commentary only. It is not personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. AI‑related stocks are volatile and can move sharply in response to policy, earnings, and sentiment. Before making any investment decisions, consider your risk tolerance, time horizon and diversification, and consult a qualified financial adviser if you need advice tailored to your situation.