HONG KONG, July 27, 2026, 03:07 HKT — Trading has ended for the day.
Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA; HKG:9988) ended the week with gains from its Qwen surge wiped out. The company’s U.S. ADR settled at $112.14 on Friday, marking a 2.5% drop over the week. Shares in Hong Kong declined 4.3% to HK$110.00.
The turnaround is significant as Monday saw a 4.7% surge after the Qwen3.8-Max preview. Over the subsequent four sessions, shares fell 6.8% from Monday’s close. The $8.20 drop was 53% greater than the earlier $5.37 increase.
Volume highlighted the conviction divide. Monday trades reached 14.75 million ADRs, about 10% higher than the 50-day average. By contrast, retreat sessions saw 8.0 million traded on average, or 41% below that average. The data points to waning follow-through rather than panic-driven sell-offs.
Other companies in the sector showed more resilience. JD.com NASDAQ:JD rose 1.9% over the week. PDD Holdings NASDAQ:PDD dropped 1.8%, a smaller decrease compared to Alibaba.
| U.S.-listed stock | July 17 close | July 24 close | Weekly move | July 20 | July 21–24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba ADR | $114.97 | $112.14 | -2.5% | +4.7% | -6.8% |
| JD.com ADR | $29.62 | $30.19 | +1.9% | +3.3% | -1.3% |
| PDD Holdings | $84.14 | $82.66 | -1.8% | +2.3% | -3.9% |
Reported closing prices form the basis of the calculations.
Alibaba states that Qwen3.8-Max contains 2.4 trillion parameters. The preview can be accessed via Model Studio and Alibaba’s coding platforms. However, for investors, model size is not the key commercial metric.
Cloud faces a tougher challenge. The division’s revenue increased by 38% to 41.63 billion yuan in the latest quarter. AI offerings contributed 30% of cloud sales to external clients.
Expenses continue to weigh. Adjusted EBITA dropped 84% as Alibaba invested in technology and rapid commerce initiatives. The group now anticipates its AI spending will surpass its previous 380 billion yuan commitment over three years.
Chief Executive Eddie Wu stated that the investments had started to yield commercial returns. He predicted that cloud margins would rise in the next one or two quarters. That outlook has taken on greater significance than the latest record in another metric.
Commerce shows little evidence of a strong recovery in demand. Early figures from Syntun indicate China’s 618 festival generated 863.6 billion yuan in GMV, only slightly higher than the 855.6 billion yuan recorded in the previous year. Tmall retained the top position, with JD.com following.
The broader market decline on Friday weighed on sentiment, with the Nasdaq slipping 0.6% amid investor concerns about significant AI investments ahead of upcoming U.S. megacap earnings. Alibaba recorded an even steeper drop.
Upcoming tests are imminent. The Federal Reserve holds its meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. China will release its official July PMI on Friday at 9:30 a.m. local time.
Risks are present in both directions. Robust standalone Qwen outcomes might revive the trade. Quicker increases in cloud margins would also provide a boost. Conversely, ongoing investment in AI and logistics could push back profit timelines.
Currently, cloud margin remains the key figure. Last week, model size gave Alibaba a temporary boost, but it failed to sustain buyer interest.
